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a psych forum ramble that turned into an ev discussion. a psych forum ramble that turned into an ev discussion.

02-06-2018 , 10:06 PM
What does that all mean for the big blinds ev/hand? I think it looks like this:

6.51% share after I bet = 0.471975 big bets of the pot belong to the big blind, all of which is due to the hands in range that can beat some of my value hands. All bluffcatchers are, or should be, strictly breakeven in the long run.
a psych forum ramble that turned into an ev discussion. Quote
02-07-2018 , 02:39 AM
more rambling from a different forum:

Quote:
QTo is near ev neutral as a bet or a check; it's quite profitable either way.

Despite having big equity, 99 seems to earn more as a check:

90.91% equity for 99 vs the big blinds checking range. That means we can check back and earn (6.25*90.91%) = 5.681875 big bets of checking ev.

If we bet 99:

we win (7.25*19.41%) = 1.407225 - 1 big bet invested = 0.407225 big bets.

we win (8.25*88.11%*80.59%) = 5.8581475 big bets of profit - 1 big bet invested = 4.8581475 big bets of profit.

added together: +5.2653725 big bets of profit betting 99.

despite having well >50% equity vs the calling range, checking is better with 99.

Unless I made a terrible mistake here, I think this is good.
a psych forum ramble that turned into an ev discussion. Quote
02-07-2018 , 12:49 PM
Quote:
I raise preflop on the button huhu, big blind calls.

A62r

I bet, big blind calls.

Jo

I bet, big blind calls.

To

checks to me.
big blind's ev:

( 0.6312 * 8.25) = 5.2074 big bets -1 big bet investment = 4.2074 big bets profit earned by hands that can beat QT. * 30 = 126.22 big bets profit/range

(0.9184782) 0ev call/fold range for everything else.
--------------------------------------------------------------
total: 126.22 big bets/368 combos in range = 34.29945% pot share for the big blind per hand. *6.25 = 2.1437156 big bets/hand for the big blind.

Thus the button must have a complementary share in the pot:

1 - .3429945 = 65.7055% pot share for the button per hand. * 6.25 = 4.1062843 big bets/hand for the button.
a psych forum ramble that turned into an ev discussion. Quote
02-13-2018 , 12:08 PM
88, 99, and TT are quite the puzzle UTG in fixed limit.

Leave it to Bob148 to open the can of EV worms!

The TL/DR cliffs is:

How well can you predict/exploit the players to your immediate left?

No reads at all, just open raise for value. If you can pull the puppet strings to your left, by all means limp for massively better EV!
a psych forum ramble that turned into an ev discussion. Quote

      
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