Two Plus Two Poker Forums Profitability-calculation of preflop call
 Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read TwoPlusTwo.com

 Notices

 Poker Theory General poker theory

 07-14-2018, 08:34 PM #1 SUYAPA journeyman     Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 234 Profitability-calculation of preflop call Today i was sitting at a 1/3 table with a poker friend. He had a stack of 200 and opened after a limper to 15 with 99 in mp. The guy to his left (covers) 3b to 50 and my friend called. I"m pretty sure that this isn't a profitable call because people in LLSNL have an extreme tight 3b range which is something like AA, KK, QQ, AK. Also being oop makes it hard to maneuver this short stack postflop and to realize equity. He is getting 2:1 pre and has 34% equity against the range above but you cant really call a bet postflop with such a short stack and even if u get a flop like 632r you dont know if you are good. Is there a way to calculate if the call pre is profitable given all the circumstances?
 07-15-2018, 11:52 AM #2 Brokenstars Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Jul 2012 Location: Check out my PGC!!! Posts: 11,945 Re: Profitability-calculation of preflop call Only with a bunch more assumptions
07-15-2018, 12:46 PM   #3
SUYAPA
journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 234
Re: Profitability-calculation of preflop call

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Brokenstars Only with a bunch more assumptions
Ok. For example? Which assumptions?

The guy wasn't overly aggressive and before the hand i played a hand with him were i 3b him with AK and he flatted with QQ oop 100bb eff.

 07-16-2018, 09:02 AM #4 Brokenstars Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Jul 2012 Location: Check out my PGC!!! Posts: 11,945 Re: Profitability-calculation of preflop call I guess the simplest model you can calculate would be the frequency of flopping a set and assuming villain always bets flop and always gets it in and you fold every time you don't have a set. So, under this model there would be three occurrences. 1) hero doesn't flop a set and folds 2) hero flops a set and wins 3) hero flops a set and loses 1) is easily calculated 2) depends on frequency of flopping a set taking into account blocker effects of V's range to be more accurate, I guess 3) depends on frequency of flopping a set + taking into account of v's equity
 07-16-2018, 10:39 AM #5 robert_utk Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: ValueTown Posts: 3,682 Profitability-calculation of preflop call Having 185 left and calling a 35 raise with a pocket pair is losing money wrt set mining, by quite a large margin. Given that 99 is particularly vulnerable postflop, correct play will be difficult to hold onto your equity. This particular hand is a shove or fold given the stack sizes, and with the description of tight 3b ranges, probably a fold. The rule of thumb that works best across live and online is that you must have effective remaining stacks of at least 10 times what you have to call to flop a set. This roughly accounts for the times you hit but get no action.
 07-19-2018, 05:12 AM #6 SUYAPA journeyman     Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 234 Re: Profitability-calculation of preflop call Aight thanks

 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Forum Rules
 Forum Jump User Control Panel Private Messages Subscriptions Who's Online Search Forums Forums Home Links to Popular Forums     News, Views, and Gossip     Beginners Questions     Marketplace & Staking     Casino & Cardroom Poker     Internet Poker     NL Strategy Forums     Poker Goals & Challenges     Las Vegas Lifestyle     Sporting Events     Politics     Other Other Topics Two Plus Two     About the Forums     Two Plus Two Magazine Forum     The Two Plus Two Bonus Program     Two Plus Two Pokercast     The Best of Two Plus Two Marketplace & Staking     Commercial Marketplace     General Marketplace     Staking - Offering Stakes     Staking         Staking - Offering Stakes         Staking - Seeking Stakes         Staking - Selling Shares - Online         Staking - Selling Shares - Live         Staking Rails         Transaction Feedback & Disputes     Transaction Feedback & Disputes Coaching & Training     Coaching Advice     Cash Game Poker Coach Listings     Tournament/SNG Poker Coach Listings Poker News & Discussion     News, Views, and Gossip     Poker Goals & Challenges     Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance     That's What She Said!     Poker Legislation & PPA Discussion hosted by Rich Muny     Twitch - Watch and Discuss Live Online Poker     Televised Poker General Poker Strategy     Beginners Questions     Books and Publications     Poker Tells/Behavior, hosted by: Zachary Elwood     Poker Theory     Psychology No Limit Hold'em Strategy     Medium-High Stakes PL/NL     Micro-Small Stakes PL/NL     Medium-High Stakes Full Ring     Micro-Small Stakes Full Ring     Heads Up NL     Live Low-stakes NL Limit Texas Hold'em Strategy     Mid-High Stakes Limit     Micro-Small Stakes Limit Tournament Poker Strategy     STT Strategy     Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos     Mid-High Stakes MTT     Small Stakes MTT     MTT Community     Tournament Events Other Poker Strategy     High Stakes PL Omaha     Small Stakes PL Omaha     Omaha/8     Stud     Draw and Other Poker Live Poker     Casino & Cardroom Poker         Venues & Communities         Regional Communities     Venues & Communities     Tournament Events         WPT.com     Home Poker     Cash Strategy     Tournament Strategy Internet Poker     Internet Poker         nj.partypoker.com         Global Poker         MPN – Microgaming Poker Network         Big Ugly Poker     Commercial Software     Software         Commercial Software         Free Software General Gambling     Backgammon Forum hosted by Bill Robertie.     Probability     Sports Betting     Other Gambling Games 2+2 Communities     Other Other Topics         OOTV         Game of Thrones     The Lounge: Discussion+Review     EDF     Las Vegas Lifestyle     BBV4Life         omg omg omg     House of Blogs Sports and Games     Sporting Events         Single-Team Season Threads         Fantasy Sports     Fantasy Sports, sponsored by Draftboard.com         Sporting Events     Wrestling     Golf     Chess and Other Board Games     Video Games         League of Legends         Hearthstone     Puzzles and Other Games Other Topics     Politics     History     Business, Finance, and Investing     Science, Math, and Philosophy     Religion, God, and Theology     Travel     Health and Fitness     Laughs or Links!     Computer Technical Help     Programming International Forums     Deutsch         BBV [German]     Français     Two Plus Two en Español

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:27 AM.

 Contact Us - Two Plus Two Publishing LLC - Privacy Statement - Top