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Old 07-14-2018, 08:34 PM   #1
SUYAPA
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Profitability-calculation of preflop call

Today i was sitting at a 1/3 table with a poker friend. He had a stack of 200 and opened after a limper to 15 with 99 in mp. The guy to his left (covers) 3b to 50 and my friend called.
I"m pretty sure that this isn't a profitable call because people in LLSNL have an extreme tight 3b range which is something like AA, KK, QQ, AK. Also being oop makes it hard to maneuver this short stack postflop and to realize equity. He is getting 2:1 pre and has 34% equity against the range above but you cant really call a bet postflop with such a short stack and even if u get a flop like 632r you dont know if you are good.

Is there a way to calculate if the call pre is profitable given all the circumstances?
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Old 07-15-2018, 11:52 AM   #2
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Re: Profitability-calculation of preflop call

Only with a bunch more assumptions
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Old 07-15-2018, 12:46 PM   #3
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Re: Profitability-calculation of preflop call

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brokenstars View Post
Only with a bunch more assumptions
Ok. For example? Which assumptions?

The guy wasn't overly aggressive and before the hand i played a hand with him were i 3b him with AK and he flatted with QQ oop 100bb eff.
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Old 07-16-2018, 09:02 AM   #4
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Re: Profitability-calculation of preflop call

I guess the simplest model you can calculate would be the frequency of flopping a set and assuming villain always bets flop and always gets it in and you fold every time you don't have a set. So, under this model there would be three occurrences.

1) hero doesn't flop a set and folds
2) hero flops a set and wins
3) hero flops a set and loses

1) is easily calculated
2) depends on frequency of flopping a set taking into account blocker effects of V's range to be more accurate, I guess
3) depends on frequency of flopping a set + taking into account of v's equity
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Old 07-16-2018, 10:39 AM   #5
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Profitability-calculation of preflop call

Having 185 left and calling a 35 raise with a pocket pair is losing money wrt set mining, by quite a large margin. Given that 99 is particularly vulnerable postflop, correct play will be difficult to hold onto your equity.

This particular hand is a shove or fold given the stack sizes, and with the description of tight 3b ranges, probably a fold.

The rule of thumb that works best across live and online is that you must have effective remaining stacks of at least 10 times what you have to call to flop a set. This roughly accounts for the times you hit but get no action.
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Old 07-19-2018, 05:12 AM   #6
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Re: Profitability-calculation of preflop call

Aight thanks
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