It seems like Snowie offers advice that is pretty bat**** crazy in some spots. After reading one of Arty's posts in BQ, I wanted to see how Snowie deals with having a narrow, capped pre-flop range on bad boards. 100NL 6-max UTG opens to 3xBB and faces a BU 3-bet to 10.5xBB. UTG calls with a range of 99-JJ, AJs-AQs. It seems to me that this range is going to be very hard to play on a large number of boards. On Axx boards our strongest hand is AQ when BU can have AK, AA and some light 3-bets which hit 2P/sets. On Kxx our strongest hand is second pair. On any board 8-high or lower our opponent has QQ+ and we have no sets. We can get a board which smashes our range like JT8 and effectively win nearly the whole pot, but these are rare.
So I looked at the A
7
3
and gave UTG A
Q
. UTG checks AQs along with it's whole range here, which seems clearly correct. BU bets 1/2 pot 36% of the time, which seems low to me and I see that Snowie is only betting 2P+ and bluffs on this flop. When UTG bets 1/2 pot Snowie defends AQ/AJ only and folds 71% of the time. Now things get weird. Turn is T
and snowie leads 1/4 pot for an EV of 23.45
This seems blatantly incorrect as the turn adds no strong hands to our range, our range is face-up so our opponent's range is polarized. The turn seems like an obvious check. Of course BU only folds to this bet 6% of the time, but his defending strategy is ridiculous. Snowie says raise 1/2 pot 30% of the time with a range of only bluffs, and call 63% with a range of 2P+ and some floats. When the opponent raises Snowie says to never fold, which makes sense if the opponent's range is 100% bluffs, but in practice and theory this line is nuts.
After BU calls and the river is the 4
, Snowie says the EV of betting 1/4 pot again is equal to the EV of checking at 30.38, which is obviously wrong because the opponent can just jam on us with a balanced range. Snowie then says BU should raise 1/4 pot with all hands that can beat AQ, but no bluffs. Obviously the correct bet size here is all-in and we should have a balanced number of bluffs. Snowie still thinks we should call the raise sometimes even though the opponent's range has no bluffs.
Going back, if the flop goes x/x and the turn is the same T
, Snowie says check TT and bet the rest at 1/4 pot, which is again nuts as it makes it impossible for us to get value with TT and our betting range is weak.
IDK wtf is going on. Does Snowie just completely suck at playing narrow ranges?