Quote:
Originally Posted by Babarberousse
The idea is to show that there are obvious situations with close range equity (and probably with a positive EV postflop in regular situations) but which turn to be -EV because your hand is face up postflop.
K9s and 44 have about 50% equity against a button limping range. We need 29% equity to call a 2.5x raise out of the small blind. On average we'll have 50% equity on the flop, and we need 29% to breakeven.
A couple people, including you, saw that it's obviously a huge mistake because our range is face-up. I was hoping you'd provide an argument that I could rebut beyond Proof By Obviousness.
Instead I'll argue with myself:
1. Assuming the Villain doesn't have blockers, 43% of the time they'll be a 4 or king on the flop. He can't bluff every flop. We can bluff/value-bet flops containing 4s and Ks -- maybe even nines.
2. On any 2-tone or montotone flop we could have a flush or flush draw. Villain can't safely bluff those.
3. We only need to realize 60% (29%/50%) of our hand's equity to show a profit.
That might not be a good rebuttal, but I don't know what your argument is in detail.