How to know which hands to bet?
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 219
Say i open UTG and BTN flats. Flop comes K52cc. How do i know the thereshold for 3streets vaue? Say i have KT there. Should i go for 3 streets? Why?
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 13,256
Depends on the tendencies of villain.
If he's a "GTO bot", only KK and 55 can be tripled for value. KT is a pretty clear check-call for me. I'd usually bet AK for value (depends if I have a flush blocker/backdoor) and check a later street, but I'd be inclined to check KQ pretty often on the flop, as villain doesn't have any/many worse kings to call with, but will bluff (or v-bet worse) pretty often if checked to.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 132
Arty, you wouldn't think we'd get enough value from draws that are calling us to cbet with KT there?
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 13,256
A solid player doesn't call pre vs UTG with many drawing hands. In the spot described, the only suited combos I have OTB on that flop that didn't make top pair are AQs, AJs, QJs, JTs. 4 flush draw combos isn't exactly a large chunk of a range to target for value.
If I'm UTG, I'm more concerned with getting two streets of value from JJ-88. The board would have to run out pretty weirdly to ever get three streets of value from worse, because the moment you bet that flop, villain puts you on ace king.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 132
I guess this may be a leak for me, because I would sometimes call with 88-JJ and small suited connectors vs UTG depending on villain. Sometimes 3betting with those hands.
But I think you're right, we probably devalue our hand too much and isolate villain's value range against us by betting this flop now that I think about it.
