Quote:
Originally Posted by dejacob
hand AhKc
headsup 3bet pot
turn - 550
7s Ac 9d 6h
bet 250 and villian shoves. he covers and we have 750 behind.
assuming villian is getting it in with 77,99,A9s,A7s,AJ,AQ
So pot size at our decision point:
550+250+1000 = 1800
750 for us to call.
Range:
77 = 3 combos
99 = 3 combos
A7s = 2 combos
A9s = 2 combos
AQ = 8 combos
AJ = 8 combos
AK = 6 combos
Total combos = 32
Frequencies:
77 = 3/32 = .09375
99 = 3/32 = .09375
A7s = 2/32 = .0625
A9s = 2/32= .0625
AQ = 8/32 = .25
AJ = 8/32 = .25
AK = 6/32 = .1875
About the above. If you are going to assume AQ/AJ shoves here you should also include AK to be thorough.
Now at this point you could calculate the EV using the individual hands, but to make things faster we can lump hands with identical equity together just like you did previously:
77 & 99 = .1875
A7s & A9s = .125
AJ & AQ = .50
AK = .1875
Now we need to determine our equity for each hand grouping. You can either calculate this with outs or the much better solution is to use an equity calculator since it will not miss any outs like you might.
77 & 99 = 0
A7s & A9s = .102
AJ & AQ = .933
AK = .5
Now that we have the equity we can calculate the EV of each scenario.
77 & 99
Since we can never win vs these hands our EV is -750
A7s & A9s
10.2% of the time we hit our K or in the case of A7 the 9 pairs the board and we win and the other 89.8% we lose our 750
.102 * 1800 - .898*750 = -489.90
AQ & AJ
93.3% of the time we win and 6.7% of the time our opponent hits a Q or J and beats us.
.933 * 1800 - .067*750 = 1629.15
AK
We split the whole pot with villain (including our 750 call).
.5*(1800+750) = .5*(2550) =1275
So now to get our total EV we multiply the EV of our individual scenarios by the probability those scenarios occur:
.1875*(-750) + .125*(-489.90) + .5*(1629.15) + .1875*(1275) =
-140.625 + -61.2375 + 814.575 + 239.0625
= 851.775
Hopefully I didn't make any silly math errors in there but that should be the basic process.