Quote:
Originally Posted by nolispeifaflaatoi
The relevant Hold'Em Manager 2 FAQ is here: http://hm2faq.holdemmanager.com/ques...ected+Value%29
If you get 100 BB stacks all in with 50% equity, all-in EV shows up as 100 BB. If you bet 99 BB with 50% equity and put the last 1 BB in drawing dead, all-in equity is 0 BB. How else would you calculate it? Do you mean taking 50% of the 2x99 BB and then 0% of the 2x1 BB, resulting in 99 BB?
I don't understand this. Say my opponent has 30% equity when I go all in for one more chip (so they're getting insane odds to call). On average I'd still expect them to still win around 30%, not more. If they win more than that it's the result of variance, not the odds I was giving them. What am I missing?
Maybe I am overthinking it (or not thinking enough).
Lets use the example from the FAQ link. Top set versus flush draw. Effective stacks are 200, on the flop, pot is 40, each player has 180 behind. Flush draw bets 20, top set raises to 50, flush reraises to 100, top set shoves, flush calls all in with his last 80. The flush gets even money on the last 80 he puts in, however his graph will reflect that he put in 180 as a 4:1 dog. However, the flush is counting on winning the hand on the 3-bet a fair amount of the time unless an opponent has a set or top-two pair, and “oops” gets even money on his last 80 he puts in when the opponent does have such a hand. The flush did get his money in badly, but not all 180 of it.
I guess I would prefer the all in equity to reflect the exact odds of each individual bet and total that for the hand.