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poker graph- bad luck? poker graph- bad luck?

03-16-2018 , 04:31 AM
Hello guys!
I have a little problem with my play this year -i am micro- small
stakes grinder and i can't make satisfied reults. I wonder if it's my game's fault or bad luck.
My graph:
https://imageshack.com/a/img922/9693/cTM4vt.jpg
(Its 0.05/0.10 and 0.10/0.25 stakes)
What do You think about it?
Regards
poker graph- bad luck? Quote
03-16-2018 , 09:12 AM
Well you are running below aiev, so that is certainly unlucky.
poker graph- bad luck? Quote
03-16-2018 , 09:41 AM
Do you think I should just do my thing and wait for the effect? It started to pissed me off :P
poker graph- bad luck? Quote
03-19-2018 , 11:03 AM
Question for op:

Are you absolutely positive that the software takes into account 3bet/4bet jams and the remaining stacks that go in with the last bet versus just calculating the money that went in on a single street as "All in equity"? What I mean is, is it possible that your last all in gave the opponents odds to call all in with on these 3bet/4bet streets. If the software simply says you were the favorite on that street, without showing the odds of the last chips that went into the pot, then you will get a graph like this, where you are below EV but acutally are giving out favorable odds to your opponents. You can test this by finding a single hand where it was 3bet all in and show the exact change in your graph for that single hand.
poker graph- bad luck? Quote
03-20-2018 , 04:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by robert_utk
Are you absolutely positive that the software takes into account 3bet/4bet jams and the remaining stacks that go in with the last bet versus just calculating the money that went in on a single street as "All in equity"?
The relevant Hold'Em Manager 2 FAQ is here: http://hm2faq.holdemmanager.com/ques...ected+Value%29

If you get 100 BB stacks all in with 50% equity, all-in EV shows up as 100 BB. If you bet 99 BB with 50% equity and put the last 1 BB in drawing dead, all-in equity is 0 BB. How else would you calculate it? Do you mean taking 50% of the 2x99 BB and then 0% of the 2x1 BB, resulting in 99 BB?

Quote:
Originally Posted by robert_utk
What I mean is, is it possible that your last all in gave the opponents odds to call all in with on these 3bet/4bet streets. If the software simply says you were the favorite on that street, without showing the odds of the last chips that went into the pot, then you will get a graph like this, where you are below EV but acutally are giving out favorable odds to your opponents. You can test this by finding a single hand where it was 3bet all in and show the exact change in your graph for that single hand.
I don't understand this. Say my opponent has 30% equity when I go all in for one more chip (so they're getting insane odds to call). On average I'd still expect them to still win around 30%, not more. If they win more than that it's the result of variance, not the odds I was giving them. What am I missing?
poker graph- bad luck? Quote
03-20-2018 , 01:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nolispeifaflaatoi
The relevant Hold'Em Manager 2 FAQ is here: http://hm2faq.holdemmanager.com/ques...ected+Value%29



If you get 100 BB stacks all in with 50% equity, all-in EV shows up as 100 BB. If you bet 99 BB with 50% equity and put the last 1 BB in drawing dead, all-in equity is 0 BB. How else would you calculate it? Do you mean taking 50% of the 2x99 BB and then 0% of the 2x1 BB, resulting in 99 BB?







I don't understand this. Say my opponent has 30% equity when I go all in for one more chip (so they're getting insane odds to call). On average I'd still expect them to still win around 30%, not more. If they win more than that it's the result of variance, not the odds I was giving them. What am I missing?


Maybe I am overthinking it (or not thinking enough).

Lets use the example from the FAQ link. Top set versus flush draw. Effective stacks are 200, on the flop, pot is 40, each player has 180 behind. Flush draw bets 20, top set raises to 50, flush reraises to 100, top set shoves, flush calls all in with his last 80. The flush gets even money on the last 80 he puts in, however his graph will reflect that he put in 180 as a 4:1 dog. However, the flush is counting on winning the hand on the 3-bet a fair amount of the time unless an opponent has a set or top-two pair, and “oops” gets even money on his last 80 he puts in when the opponent does have such a hand. The flush did get his money in badly, but not all 180 of it.

I guess I would prefer the all in equity to reflect the exact odds of each individual bet and total that for the hand.
poker graph- bad luck? Quote

      
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