Quote:
Originally Posted by UpDog
I dont recall this specific example but I was in a similar situation as you. Just google the 2p2 thread for the book and he has any mistakes corrected on the thread. Check if you can find the mistake you found in the thread for the book.
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Thanks. I found my way to the thread, and did not find an error listed for these pages. I had done a general google about optimum turn bets with his name in it before posting my question and did not find anything relevant, but I could still have missed something.
I don't think this is a mistake in the normal sense. Assuming no errors in my calculation, which seems to me to be likely since I duplicate Janda's number when I use his assumption of B folding on the river, it raises a question about how precisely we can work backward from the river to the flop. It looks like the optimum bluff rate depends on the decisions make on future streets. I have not chased this back to the flop to see what kind of a spread in rates results from different paths.
The book has been great. Working back to the flop from the river is really clever. However, my attempt to understand the calculation seems to lead to the conclusion that the optimum bluff rate is at least slightly less precise (e.g. the difference between 0.4 and 0.45 may be irrelevant in a game). I expect this is related to correctly handling the implied odds of earlier streets. Implied odds involve multiple streets so the streets cannot be considered "independently." At least that is what appears to be the case to me at this point.