Hi been long time sorry , just need confirmation on basic maths ..

Let’s say pot is at 5BB .

I decide to c/r 2BB and bet 1BB on another street hoping he folds .
Pot would be at 9BB and its the amount i win if he folds .

So if I am right he would need to fold at the minimum 33% of the time or more for me to be profitable , correct ?

Now let’s say I have a draw with 20% of hitting ...
Would it be correct to say I need my opponent to fold only 13% of the time since I know 20% of the time I win when my draw hit ?

Thx .

Sorry but for finalizing....
Im very rusty

If I am right up there , if I wanted to calculate my expected value , do I calculate like this ?

20% ( draw hit) . 9BB ( amount I win at the end ) + 66% ( he call and I lose ) . 3BB ( amount I lose ) + 33% ( he folds and I win 9BB) = my expected value ?

Thx very much if u can help .

No, it’s not that simple. The EV equation for you betting 1 into a pot of 9 with equity of 20% and fe is fold equity is the following:

EV = fe*9 + (1-fe)*(0.2*(9 +2)-1)

Setting this to 0 and solving for fe results in a negative fe value, meaning you don’t need any fold equity for making the bet +EV. Of course, if there is future betting this is only a first-cut look at the issue. Another issue here is that you are giving villain 10 to 1 pot odds so a fold is very unlikely, but the pot is so large relative to the bet that it is EV for both to make the play.

You can show that the required fold equity for a shove is the following:

K = bet/pot

x = K - eq*(1+2*K)

fe_min = x/(1+x).

Thx for your time but didn’t understand much
Was my second post wrong as well ?

For the first one let’s just talk about the turn cause no idea where I’m wring if u can elaborate a bit more ....

Pot at 5BB
I c/r so pot at 7 BB

So to win just by him folding would be 2/7 correct ? So he would need to fold more than 28% to make it profitable correct ?

Now I got my 20% equity , how those it change my need to make him fold since when I hit my draw I win ?

Thx if You have time

I was using the later 1 bet as the decision point. Thus, the 2 bet you made earlier becomes part of your winnings.

Regarding your equation, what is your decision point?

Your equation indicates a loss of 3 if villain calls and you lose. That tells me your decision point is the 2 bet as you are including jt and the later bet of 1 as your investment that you might lose. But, you made the pot = 9 as part of your winnings if V folds, but that 9 includes your 2 bet and that’s wrong at your chosen decision point.

If pot is 5, you bet 2 and if V calls you win 20% of the time, the showdown EV is:

EV = fe*5 +(1-fe)*(0.2*7-.8*2)

Set to 0 and solve for EV you get min fe is 3.8%
0.038*5 - 0.962*0.2 = 0

Again, if the bet was not all-in this is only a first cut look at the situation.

Ok thx !
Appreciate!