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Old 10-10-2018, 09:28 PM   #1
LordPallidan12
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Heart math behind calling turn jam with small OP 150bb

was this play + or - ev?

150bb effective, villain 60vpip somewhat stationy, definitely a whale, not a maniac, but, not above stabbing with 42o when xd to and showing the bluff/jamming draws. no major reads/tells

villain straddles 2bb, hero makes it 6bb with 99 villain calls
flop 527
pot 14bb hero value bets 7bb villain calls
turn 8
pot 27bb hero bets 18bb villain rr to 72bb with 117bb effective behind
hero jams for 117bb

giving villain a worst case scenario pure value range of 2p+ hero has 30% equity
(88-77,55,22,87s,75s,64s+,52s,87o,75o,64o+,52o)

when i add in suited aces and some gutshots heros equity approaches 40%



i cant figure out how to do the pot odds calculation
am i risking 117$ to win the 45$ pot+ his 72$? or, am i risking 117$ to win the 45$pot + his 72$ rr plus his remaining 55$ plus my 117$ since i dont think hes folding.

because the former gives me 50% equity needed the latter 33% equity needed
or is it 117/300 since we're going all in and thats our total stack sizes in the end = 39%

i guess its kind of a bad board since i block a lot of the draws, and the turned 8 ( the only op i beat now has trips)
was this terribly stupid or barely breakeven/ ok, and am i analyzing it correctly?

Last edited by LordPallidan12; 10-10-2018 at 09:53 PM.
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Old 10-10-2018, 11:47 PM   #2
statmanhal
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Re: math behind calling turn jam with small OP 150bb

I think some of your dollar numbers are inconsistent. I will assume that after villain raises to 72, the effective stack is 117.

Pot odds with a hero last bet-raise and villain call are the amount in the pot prior to hero’s bet-raise plus villain’s call amount divided by hero’s bet-raise = reward/risk.

In this case the pot before hero’s raise is 45+ 72 =117. Hero then raised to 117, so that is his risk. Villain has to call 117-54=63 so that is added to the reward for a total reward of 180. Therefore the pot odds are 180/117=1.54 to 1. The required equity for +EV assuming villain will call is then

Eq>= 1/(1+PotOdds) = 39.4%.

Another way to determine the equity you need for +EV is to calculate what percentage of the final pot consists of hero’s last bet. The final pot is 45+72+117+63 = 297 and hero “owns” 117 of that so his fair share is 117/297 = 39.4%.

If I misinterpreted some of the bet amounts I hope the above still provides enough information to use the right values for determining the needed equity.
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Old 10-11-2018, 12:39 AM   #3
LordPallidan12
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Re: math behind calling turn jam with small OP 150bb

perfect, so the 39% is the correct number. if he stacks off with what i think he would, my equity is ~40% at best. so my play is roughly break even.
anecdotally, would common wisdom say stacking off with 99 here is retarded?
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