was this play + or - ev?
150bb effective, villain 60vpip somewhat stationy, definitely a whale, not a maniac, but, not above stabbing with 42o when xd to and showing the bluff/jamming draws. no major reads/tells
villain straddles 2bb, hero makes it 6bb with 9
9
villain calls
flop 5
2
7
pot 14bb hero value bets 7bb villain calls
turn 8
pot 27bb hero bets 18bb villain rr to 72bb with 117bb effective behind
hero jams for 117bb
giving villain a worst case scenario pure value range of 2p+ hero has 30% equity
(88-77,55,22,87s,75s,64s+,52s,87o,75o,64o+,52o)
when i add in suited aces and some gutshots heros equity approaches 40%
i cant figure out how to do the pot odds calculation
am i risking 117$ to win the 45$ pot+ his 72$? or, am i risking 117$ to win the 45$pot + his 72$ rr plus his remaining 55$ plus my 117$ since i dont think hes folding.
because the former gives me 50% equity needed the latter 33% equity needed
or is it 117/300 since we're going all in and thats our total stack sizes in the end = 39%
i guess its kind of a bad board since i block a lot of the draws, and the turned 8 ( the only op i beat now has trips)
was this terribly stupid or barely breakeven/ ok, and am i analyzing it correctly?
Last edited by LordPallidan12; 10-10-2018 at 09:53 PM.