Quote:
Originally Posted by just_grindin
This abstraction works best when the equity of your hand or the equity required to play is clearly defined (i.e. on the river r in all in situations) and poorly when more betting can occur.
Future betting does make early street EV analysis somewhat questionable. I consider it a first cut look at a math-based decision approach noting that equity realization is an important factor There are several possibilities for (partially) addressing the issue.
.If the bet is all-in or if it is reasonable to assume the hand will be checked down, then the issue goes away.
.If on the turn, you can make several assumptions on what villain may do on the river given a possible action on your part and weight the results by your estimate of occurrence probabilities.
.You can do an implied odds analysis when you have a good drawing hand which considers potential wins (and losses) if you hit the draw on the next street and bet big.
.If villain tends to bet a constant factor of the pot then you can determine on an early street the correct pot odds and equivalent equity you need to make the call that anticipates future bets. The same approach applies if it is you making the bets and villain calling. This approach is suggested with some reservations as it assumes a lot.
Example: It is the turn and TurnPot is 100. Villain over-bets to 150. What equity is needed for hero to make a +EV turn call if villain were to make a bet on the river equal to 1.5 *RiverPot that hero will call?
Answer: The pot into the river with hero calling is 100+150+150 = 400. On the river, villain would bet 1.5*400 = 600. The amount hero would win is 100 + 150 + 600 = 850 and he would risk 150 + 600 = 750. Therefore, his pot odds considering both streets are 850/750 = 1.13. These pot odds require a 47% showdown equity for +EV.