I started playing again a few months back. I have done well and and interested in determining a reasonable estimate for my win rate. I want this to use as a parameter to use in the Kelly BR calculation. (https://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php#more)

The other parameters in this calculation are basically fixed, leaving the whole calculation dependent on what my expected win rate is. The parameters are as follows. Bankroll, given by my BR. Odds, given buy payout structure of events played. Buy in, given by events. Min Buy in, given by available events. Win Rate, this is where I am totally guessing or bastardizing math completely.

One way I might consider is to look at the doubling rate of my bankroll. Then determine the probability to double. Using the fact of how many times I have doubled my BR to , the likelihood that this many doubling is due to variance. But really, these are just ideas of how to reinvent the wheel.

I am familiar enough with Mathematica to program a calculation of this nature, but I want to do it the right way.

What is the right method I need to use?

According to Kelly, poker players are massive nits pushing tiny slivers of bankroll back and forth on a poker table.

You have QQ, and your opponent has AK. How much does Kelly recommend to bet? More than you brought to the table.

I'm a big believer in the Kelly Criterion but I think it would be rather impossible to use it for Poker. Even if you had a good estimate of the probability distribution of outcomes per hand, it's not like that would scale up. If you move to a higher stakes, the distribution will be different because the competition is better.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...tsngs-1553950/

It turns out the common BR advice you hear is pretty close to what Kelly says too. The main thing to realize is how drastically field size influences how many BI you need. Frequently playing a high buyin small field event will be preferable to a huge field small buyin event. Also be conservative with what ROI you use for this, if you're a winning player it's more likely you've ran above expectation in your career.

If you are playing with a very small percentage of your bankroll, it might. A brief look at the QQvAK situation says about 12% of your bankroll.

I think the reason there might be a way to calculate a number here is that the bet is the buy in and all of the choices within that buy in are compacted together. So it seems that hand to hand analysis is just internal mechanics of the ROI function. I have seen a few of these attempts to find ROI return things like 7bb/100 (+/- 15%), totally useless in the context of MTTs.

getmeofcompletely linked the an mtt attempt, it seems to be close to what I am trying to get at.

That link is great, thank you. Fish on a heeter confirmed.

My anecdotal experience is that I have a huge edge in $10 events and near zero if any at $50+. This has always led to playing lower, but also why I want to investigate Kelly to so I can play a reasonable balance of buy ins and field sizes.

I have two ideas that might make sense. First is considering two probabilities, P(make final table) and P(2nd or better). The first would be highly sensitive to field size while the second a constant with most impact on ROI.

The second is to assume that the sample is played at N kelly and solve for ROI for various N. This is to say, If I was playing half kelly, here is my ROI, and if i was playing at 2 kelly here is my ROI.