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Old 10-17-2018, 04:54 PM   #1
kvnd
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How to play sets on monotone boards 100bb deep?

Title self explanatory. The frequent situation where you flat in bb or button with a pocket pair, and hit a set on a monotone board. Should we always go for check raises and barrel off our stack? What about bet sizing? How does being multiway effect things?
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Old 10-17-2018, 05:47 PM   #2
SHIP_DAT
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Re: How to play sets on monotone boards 100bb deep?

Think it's probably v dependant to some extent but ya looking to play it pretty fast to deny equity with decent amount of outs vs the nuts.

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Old 10-17-2018, 08:22 PM   #3
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Re: How to play sets on monotone boards 100bb deep?

once i decide to play it fast, i'm not folding.
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Old 10-19-2018, 04:41 AM   #4
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Re: How to play sets on monotone boards 100bb deep?

title is not self-explanatory and your question is way too general, there is a severe difference in optimal strategies depending on position and eff stack size, even if it’s not multiway.
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Old 10-19-2018, 11:14 AM   #5
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Re: How to play sets on monotone boards 100bb deep?

A set might actually not be strong enough to checkraise. Plus, a balanced opponent can check-back full range and realize equity while still having the nuts in range.

I prefer check call or just lead out with a bet.

Monotone flops require extra caution since it is often murky as to which player is actually betting to deny equity vs which player is drawing.
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Old 10-19-2018, 12:55 PM   #6
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Re: How to play sets on monotone boards 100bb deep?

Different preflop actions, bet sizes, stack sizes, and positions, all have an effect on the postflop pot distribution. This is why we need to do an example:

Button raises 3x, small blind folds, I call in the big blind with 77 and 97bb effective.

flop A74

I check 100% here, if they bet 1/2 pot, I'm check raising 1/2 pot. If they bet 2/3-3/4 pot, I'm asking myself how they play top pair + big flushdraw type hands; if they will pay off a check raise and barrel line from me, then that's how I'll play it; if they will fold the turn or river unimproved, then I prefer to check call the flop vs 2/3+ pot bet.

flop Q75

I might bet here vs passive players, but vs anyone competent, I'm checking 100% here. If they bet 1/2 pot, I'm check raising pot. If they bet 2/3 pot, I'm check raising 2/3 pot. If they bet pot, I'm check raising 1/2 pot. If they overbet, I'm check calling.

flop 764

I'm betting 1/2 pot sometimes and I'm check raising sometimes, basically never check calling except vs very large bets. The only exception to this that comes to mind is the player that (incorrectly imo) bets here with very weak hands like JTo no flushdraw much too often and will lose a huge pot drawing slim often if I check call, but will fold those hands if I raise.
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Old 10-21-2018, 06:37 AM   #7
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Re: How to play sets on monotone boards 100bb deep?

Check/raising a set on a monotone board turns your hand into a semi bluff in a way. People are going to call the check/raise with a flush, nut flush draw, two pair and sets. In order to be balanced for when the board pairs it may be necessary to check/raise those sets along with the flushes some of the time. Most of the time I think it is correct to play a bluff catching game.

If you are going to play sets fast, I'd prefer doing it with the top set. That way you aren't possibly drawing dead to a higher set.
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Old 10-21-2018, 01:54 PM   #8
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Re: How to play sets on monotone boards 100bb deep?

Bob, could you generalize what leading strategies tend to hold? My thinking is some nut hands but not the absolute nuts unless board is very wet, some 2 pair hands, mid pair hands that have great runout potentials, and then i draw a blank regarding flushdraws/oesd/gs/air.
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Old 10-21-2018, 03:21 PM   #9
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Re: How to play sets on monotone boards 100bb deep?

Assuming you’re referring to the straight flush boards vs good players.

I’m donking the straight flushes the vast majority of the time hoping to win a huge pot. I’m also betting natural flushes, the bigger the flush, the more often I’m betting. the many other hands that I will donk here let me get action; hands like nut flush draw and a pair. Two pair, sets. Also donking many straight draw/flush draw/overcard combos. Only vs the tightest players will I donk something like naked overcards.

My checking range and subsequent call/raise split is determined by betsize. Note that the desire to donk is because good players have strong betting ranges on the straight flush flop, the majority of which can compete with made flushes by making bigger flushes on the turn and river, as well as full houses. The rest of the flop betting range that can fold to a check raise? I would think that it will be hands like overcard + pair hands.

The strength of the betting range, which is dependent on the betsize, then determines the appropriate check raise ranges and the betsize.

Last edited by Bob148; 10-21-2018 at 03:29 PM.
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Old 10-22-2018, 07:10 PM   #10
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Re: How to play sets on monotone boards 100bb deep?

Quote:
Originally Posted by kvnd View Post
The frequent situation where you flat in bb or button with a pocket pair, and hit a set on a monotone board.
For the record:

Given you have a pair, the chance you hit a set with a monotone board (not of your suit) is

2 * C(12,2)/C(50,3) = 0.67%.

If you do not assume the pair,including being dealt a pair results in a probability equal to 1/17 of this value.

I don’t think one would consider this to be frequent.
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Old 10-23-2018, 01:06 AM   #11
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Re: How to play sets on monotone boards 100bb deep?

I think also *given* that you have flopped a monotone set, what are the odds villain has at least a flush draw is more relevant.

We love sets, but they usually don’t block anything which is great on dry boards, and a problem on wet boards.
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Old 10-23-2018, 03:30 PM   #12
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Re: How to play sets on monotone boards 100bb deep?

Quote:
Originally Posted by robert_utk View Post
I think also *given* that you have flopped a monotone set, what are the odds villain has at least a flush draw is more relevant.
Given you have a set with a monotone flop (implies no match of your suits), the probability viliain has:

a flush = C(10,2)/C(47,2) = 4.2%

a flush dra w = C(10,1)*37/C(47,2)= 34.2%

a flush or flush draw = 38.4%
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Old 10-24-2018, 02:15 AM   #13
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Re: How to play sets on monotone boards 100bb deep?

I think it will be a bit higher for the flush since more off suit stuff will be folded preflop than suited stuff. I'd also expect the flush draw to be bit lower for the same reason.

I just played around with equilab for checking flush freqencies and it doesn't seem to be all that significant of a difference. Something to note though, the higher the monotone cards are the less likely the Button player is to have a flush. On 432 there are shy of twice as many flushes for your opponent than on AKQ. It seems to be in the range of 7%-3% depending on the rank of the flop cards.

I believe I used a Snowie range for BU that I found on the preflop advisor app. In real play, I think some players open even more suited stuff.
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