hey,
i have been having the worst run of my life. And yes i mean, worst RUN. I have been a winning player for 6 years now and for the last few weeks everything has gone to ****! I keep losing to 3 and 2 outers for my stack. MY AA is winning the blinds or losing all in to smaller pairs left and right. Today i was 0-6 with AA. WTF? I am missing EVERY draw, my KK and QQ continues to run up against AA and KK. I mean seriouly... i cannot win right now no matter what the hell i do. i have looked at my HH's, my stats and videos of me playing before and now. I am doing nothing different... NOTHING, at least nothing i can find.

Anyways, I am not here to whine really.... even though i had to vent a little. I am also not here to fix whats wrong or to ask for help with hands, etc. I won forever and now start losing.. so I am either doing something really wrong and i cant find or i am just in a terrible run of luck right now. And considering how often i am getting in ahead and losing.. i know most of my losses are from that.

What i am here for now is in hopes that you grinders who play for a living (as i do) can help me out. I dont want to be in situations where it seems i have to gamble a lot. I hate the variance i have been dealing with me. Its really getting to me now. How do you grinders do it? Is there a different approach to the game when grinding out your wins? And if so, what is it? What should i do differently to grind out?
1)How are you playing your hands?
2)You playing real tight?
3)What size stack you playing with? Full, half, etc?
4)How many tables?
5)What limits best to grind?
6)Standard raising and betting amounts?
and on an on...

I know there are a lot of grinders out there and i know they play different than a regular player. Right or wrong, i would like to know more about doing it. Any help would be greatly appreciated. Things have been so rough lately. I really wanna try something new and get something that works for me. Thanks everyone, appreciate it.

-PD

P.S. an extra vent. I had a guy today call my 3 bet shove with friggin 42. He said he did it cause he didnt respect my range... idiot. So his defense against my ****ty range is to call with 42 all in? Ridiculous. Anyways, of course he outdrew me for stacks. So whatever.. more **** to deal with for this month i guess.

Again everyone, thanks for your input and assistance.

8 table.

i have played all number of tables. need more help then that. lol

I'm going thru a similar run (altho not as bad), but draws of up to 10-15 buy-ins happen, even for good players. As long as you get your money in good, I wouldn't even think twice about it. Those absurd suckouts happen.

Actually, I thought you were a "grinder". :-). If you want to try and reduce variance, which I suppose is the jist of your post, I suggest the following from the anecdotes you cited:
* don't get your money in pf on marginal situations. things like getting QQ or AK in an all-in pot pf (unless you have a good read). By the time the other guy is 5 or 6 betting you, this can't be good and is probably a coinflip at best.
* play slightly fewer hands, esp oop or defending blinds
* be more selective about the opponents you semibluff. Also, cutting down your frequency will make the others give you more credit.
* call less and bet more

I generally play 2-4 6max tables @ 2/4. I think staring around 5/10 the game selection gets worse. I buy in for 100 to 200 bbs - I personally find the short stack game boring, but some have found ways of making it work for them.
The game is essentially the same for people who grind multiple tables. You have to be aggressive, because otherwise you can not win. But find more optimal spots to risk your chips. Against certain opponents, you may have to be more aggressive for metagame issues, but at lower levels, this probably won't be an issue.

Just stop being results oriented, as a pro your chips are not money, they are you tools, ur bankroll is like a mechanic's toolbox. To battle variance, avoid marginal situation as stated above, and play alot of hands. I play 8 tables for now, but it took me a while to get comfortable, i went from 2 tables to 4 to 6 and now at 8, thinking about doing 10. Basically the more hands you play, the less variance will affect you, as long as u dont tilt away chips. Also dont play to the point where ur burnt out. Everyone has their limits, for example, i feel like i can only play my best for 2 hours after that i close my tables and review my session. btw i play ~19/16/3, but i adjust my ranges based on table conditions, so at some tables i can be playing 25/20 or so. Just play your optimal game for whatever the conditions are and just put in alot of hands and variance should even out if you're playing well.

i normally am not so results oriented. but after weeks like this, its hard not to be.
Also number of tables is not an issue for me. I have played 1 all the way through 16. Lots of tables is a lot more well known to me than just a few.
Also, i should have been more specific. I am looking to grind on full ring so i CAN play more tables.

The thing is.. i need to know what adjustments to make. It seems that being aggro is bad these days cause everyone else is so damn aggro. So if i am Multitabling FR... should i be tight/agg or tight/passive.. or LAG or LAP?

How much cbetting?

Whats better for doing all this. Like a half stack or a fullstack?
And is it better to flat call raises with like JJ+ or to reraise with them. It seems to me that reraising shuts out hands you have beat and flatting gets you mroe value. But i know most people reraise these hands.

Thanks guys... all the help is great.

oh and guess what guys.. just thought i would update you on how my life is still going as of right now. some ****** jsut called my raise with J2 and flopp two pair agasint my top top of AK and then turned a boat. Two hands later i raise TT big and get called by 46. what doe she do. flop comes friggin 446. WTF. nope doens't stop there. next hand i have AA. called my KJ. flop is J high. we get all in cause he is a moron and he turns a damn K of course. next hand on another table i get AK and flop top top against a god damn small set. This is all in last few minutes. 4 buy in swing just like that. This is what i am tlaking about. SERIOUSLY, WTF!!!

"flopp two pair agasint my top top of AK "
"flop top top against a god damn small set"

Jaimie? Is it ALL gone? omg.

lol, ok.. now back to any serious posters here that are willing to help.


oh and another thing: someone mentioned earlier to play more hands. was this sarcasm and if not, how would that help?

He didnt mean increase your vpip he meant just increase the amount of playing time.

Welcome to the bottom 5% of variance. There really isn't anything you can do outside of trying to reduce your variance a little. Except making sure that your emotions don't affect how you play. But you're just going to have to ride it out. If it seems like too much to deal with, then take a little break until your head is clear.

I highly doubt you are playing some high stakes if guys call all in with 42. So just suck it up and take the variance like a man.

If you've been winning for 6 years, you probably don't have to make too many changes. But I do think the fish to shark ratio has changed a lot over the past year (esp with regulatory changes). So the average players are probably better/more aggressive than before, so you may need to make some minor adjustments.

In the latest bad beat examples (very small sample), it seems that you are committing a lot of chips in with just one pair. I think this is fine when playing against calling station fish or super aggro players, but against "better" opponents a pair's not a great hand and it may not be a bad idea to use some pot control. Of course some of your opponents sound like true fish, but again, if you get your money in good, don't give it a second thought. I think pot control is especially important in full ring, where more players see a flop.

Good luck.

Having just come from one of your threads, I highly doubt you are qualified to make this sort of comment.

he guys... just woke up. So just now reading your posts. I appreciate them.. except the the rude one with no insight whatsoever.

More specifically. When playing fullstack which is most of the time, i really dont commit much with just a pair. I have always been a stickler for pot control just trying to earn one or two bets with top pair if i think its best. But when you know you are playing monkeys who will raise or call anything, its a shame to give up these hands against them. Besides, AA is getting all in all those times i mentioned and i lost all of them! lol
But i do agree completely with not overcommiting myself with just pairs. I will further make sure i am not doing that, even though that doesnt' seem to me my big problem. As mentioned earlier, I dont feel i am doing much different, if anything at all, then i used to. But you may have a point that there isn't near as many fish playing. What adjustments do i need to make. Cbetting has gone down the tank for me. Is it just not that profitable anymore? I even made a whole thread about the value of cbetting in the poker theory thread.

One last note.. i have tinkered with playing some shorter stacks too, like half stack 50bb. I have had success with this in the past (Id say it been more successful then any others in my 6 years as playing for a living). Anyways, i did this to cut down on the variance with hands like top pair etc. Also, since there really are less fish around, full stacks have become a tid bit overrated IMO. So with these half stacks, I feel getting it all in with top pair is pretty standard for the most part in heads up pots, etc.

Thanks again guys for your help

Outride the storm and grow from it. As someone said earlier you can outride the variance sooner by playing more hands (not higher vpip). I make this assumption based on you saying that you've been winning for six years. But I don't think you should change your gamestyle to much, at least not yet. A few weeks of variance in a six year perspective isn't that much.

Good luck and hang in there!

Hi, I know how u feel, and I have been there too. The most important thing I change is that I try to follow the flow of the game. Trying not to force the issues and making things happen right away. Instead, I play less hands and not bluff too much. I also will play lower limit, bring my game back and play less tables.

not sure where my last post went (that's what I get for trying to type something long into my phone), but here are the key points:

CBET
* still a must, to get paid big on your good hands and steal pots
* the better players will float and try to steal (the average player is better now). the key is to find a good balance.
* vary your cbet frequency based on the specific opponent
* imo 60-70% cbet is a good balance, but for FR it's probably a little less because of addl players
* the 2nd barrel is the new cbet

SHORT STACKING
* I prefer 150+ bb, so that I can still get the right odds to play pp and sc after a 3 bet, as well as being able to utilize the full spectrum of plays
* If you prefer playing high pairs, I think 20-30bb is best (depending on if you like to make 2/3 pot or pot sized bets), as that will allow for 2 bets in a raised pf pot. I don't think you can play more than 2 bets post-flop with a pair, unless the villain is a calling station, super aggro, or you have some other special read.
* with a short stack, your opponent can no longer set mine, or play scs or junk and get good implied odds in most raised pots
* the downsides are: (1) this also limits your ability to play pp, scs, etc., (2) your overall poker game will not develop, as you are using/developing only a small subset of the full poker game, (3) you can not easily transfer the ability to play SS poker into brick and mortar, as it is much more difficult to jump tables and maintain your "ideal" buy-in, (4) you will be treated like a leper by the poker community, as part of the strategy is to go squirrel away any excess bbs above your initial buy-in.

there are many ways to make money in poker. somewhere in between 20 and 200 buy-ins will be the optimal buy-in for you, depending on your poker strengths and goals.

Play patiently.

/

Variance isn't all that much of a problem in NL (I think variance as a problem is over-exaggerated IMO) if you're generally playing a tight, solid game. There won't be many all ins where you're a 2, 3, or 4:1 favourite going in on the flop i.e., there will be less dice-rolling like there is in limit going to showdown.

Double-barreling is still c-betting. Even triple-barreling is, really, but then it turns from a semi-bluff with outs to a pure bluff if you completely air-ball the board.

i obviously meant between 20-200 big blinds will be your optimal buy-in

hey,
First thanks for your response.. all of you. I find it really admirable that some of you take the time to help out a fellow player in a downswing. So thanks

Furthermore, i know a lot fo you tell me to just hang in there. But this has been going for a month now. Over and over i keep flopping top pair or better vs sets. Or i keep losing KK to AA etc. Just been happening SO MUCH! So i know these are bad beats and some variance, but i cant help but think i HAVE to be doing something else wrong too. I have always had my fair share of bad beats playing for a living this long... but its getting out of hand now, and i feel i have to be doing something else wrong now.

More specifically to the quoted post above: I am not too concerned about developing overall because.. 1) my overall game is still good and i will always work on that in shorthanded games and live etc. 2) I typically grind out playing many tables for a solid winrate and rakeback at the moment. And ego isn't a deal with me. I dont care about being the best or wanting to outplay everyone at the table. I just wanna make my money in the right spots. Dont care about being outplayed some.

Also, you mentioned playing like 20-30bb stacks. Well i seem to get the most variance with that so far. So much pushing small edges and such just creates a lot of variance ya know. Plus you are right.. a lot of small and medium pairs are taken away. Right now i mainly play 50bb stacks and seems to be pretty good. Still can protect big pairs but also can still raise with pairs etc and get some set value. But with these stacks, can i still call a raise from LP with small and medium pairs??? Also, what do i do in these pots where i raise with AK and hit top pair? Do i vb each street with just 50bb stacks or do i still need to exercise pot control and give up my hand maybe on turn? Or what if i miss? seems all this cbetting is bad for shortstacks cause each bet means more to your stack. So giving money away in pots you miss is a lot harder to make up for on the hands you win. Make sense?

well in a hurry. i will add more later. please keep responding though.. thanks

I can't believe you played for 6 years without going through something like this.
I have had one of these periods dropping me 10-20BI's several times a month for 4 months in a row now, I'm literally going insane.

i have had many periods where i was running really badly. but games were so friggin soft in the past so it wasn't hard to make it up. These days, it takes a lot longer and its much more difficult to gain some ground back after a week or more of bad beats.

I'm currently grinding out at NL10, 4-tabeling, full ring. Probably not in your leauge but here is my recepy:

Note:This post became much longer than I intended. Please try not to judge me too hard if I'm telling you things you allready know. And offcourse: ther might be some complete idiotic ideas inthere aswell. I'm a "poker student" trying to master the game.

1. Go for sets or better. You can play with worse hands after the flop but dont invest to many chips in those marginal situations.
2. I go all in preflop only with AA.
3. I raise with other pairs only in late position (except KK and QQ) and again extreemly careful if I have top pair or worse (take a stab at the pot to test the waters but dont fall in love with your hand).
4. I limp/fold mideum pairs from midle or early position.
5. Only raise from button or CO (maybe CO-1) (except with AA, KK and QQ)
6. I raise with a wide range from Button/CO if folded to me (KQo and better)
7. If there is not much raising PF i also limp in with hands like suited connectors, hoping to hit hard on the flop.

In general I value position almost more than cards, so when I raise pre flop the main goal is to steal the button. If I can do that and there is max 2 players before med on the flop i toss in a C-bet if checked to me and i have some kinde of piece of the flop (pair/draw). The C-bet is usually 1/2 the pot. If I get reraised then rule 1 aplys and I fold in other situations. I also C-bet if checked to me and the flop contains 2 of same suit. A flop like this should make a player that has something try to protect his hand against posible flush-draws. If noone has taken a stab at it, I usually do (and usually win).

Out of position rule 1 always aplys on the flop. I never bluff here. I checked to the turn and I get something I might take a stab at it unless the community cards is well coordinated.

On the river (in position) i never bet unless I have the absolute nuts.

This is most of my guide lines for playing at low stakes. I guess they could be used at higher stakes as well, but with som modifications. Almost certanly you would need to mix it up to awoid beeing predictable. Even at this level I find it profitable to mix it up in some situations:

From small blind: Steal BB with Kx or better.
Out of position against one aggro player: Check raise bluff (but do not commit to maney chips).
In position with a flop containing 2 cards of same suit and checked to me.

Another subject of great importance is how to draw the maximum chips out of your opponents when you hold the goods. Beting too much or too litle can be just as bad. If your up against a real aggro and you are out of position the best thing would be to check and let him raise. If you flat call him here, he will probably fire a second bullet on the turn. If the community cards looks really jucy and you hold the nuts all ready, feel freee to let him fry in hes own fat by 3-barreling on the river before you raises him. You might be temted to go all in here, but reraising with the same amount as the villan often makes him put more money in. If you dont hold the nuts on the turn (but still have a great hand (according to rule 1) you should reraise him on the turn to make him slow down on the river or reveale the true strength of his hand. A chek raise is after all a signal of a very strong hand and faced with a re-re raise here normally means you are beaten. In this situation a set is not good enough. If there is a hand out ther that can beat yours, the villan is probably holding it. Besides, at this point, you will have invested around 10BB in the pot and that is a loss you can live with. On the other side you will probably have to face a loss of your whole stack. If your winning is around 10BB/100 hands it might take you more than 1000 hands to recover.

My stats at the level I play?
6,22 BB/100 hands, 2400 hands. Not much, I know. The "low" BB/100 i partially because I was not diciplined enough to follow my own rules in 3 sessions. 2400 hands is way to low to say anything about how successful my strategy is but I feel I'm on to something. Most sessions (200 hands) my win rate is between 50 and 100 BB/100.

I think the skill set and correct strategy to play short stack and deep stack are very different because of the hands you can correctly play. Also, with deep stacks, bluffs can get very involved with deeper stacks, whereas with shorter stacks, it becomes a shove a thon. I think the short stack game is much simpler because you are effectively removing a lot of possible hands from your and your opponents range.
That's what I mean when I said it'll be harder to develop your overall game.

Since you seem interested in 50bbs:
* this is effectively three bets in a raised pot. If you don't mind betting 3x with a pair, then I suppose it's fine. But you can limit yourself to 3 bets or less with full stacks by check-calling oop or checking down a street ip etc.
* but you can still use pot control with shorter stacks, even with 20bb.
* if a raise is 3.5bbs, then you are getting almost 16 to 1 to play pps (assuming you hit and are able to get it in). I think this is close to the odds needed, altho higher is better.
* before you go short stack, see how often you win 50+bb hands and how often you lose. Obviously, if you win more large pots, you shouldn't go to short stack. Also, this will give you an idea as to how often you've been stacking off w 1 pair, and how often you've been getting your money in bad.
* as for how to play particular hands like AK, for me it's villain dependent, and I try to randomize a la Harrington so it'll be harder for people to put me on a hand. But in general, I'm trying to check down one street.

Anyway, I don't think the play's changed drastically the last month, so if you had been doing well, I don't think you have to make any sweeping changes - maybe just a little fine tuning. Good luck.

I think you have a good game plan as a new student of the game. And for the micro stakes you are playing, its not all that bad either. however, I would definitely still be value betting a lot more on river against such weak opponents.
the problem is.. the players and game flow at the stakes you are playing is nothing close to mid and higher stakes. Playing that nitty just doesn't work and you will get owned as you move up. Games are much tougher higher up and playing strictly ABC and tighter just isn't the way to go overall. Of course there are exceptions on some tables... but overall, you will not win with your said strategy. Its way too exploitable. And looking stricly for set value at higher stakes is also not advisable and you will get owned there too. People will raise your limps non stop giving you poor odds to chase your set. And if you hit your set.. you will not get paid off near as much at higher levels as you do with pay off monkeys at low levels

One further note... you said you open a wide range on CO and BTN being KQ +. Well, KQ or better is not a wide range AT ALL on button. Most good players especially as you move up or opening almost all SCs, pairs, any two pair and even offsuit Connectors as well. If you really value position almost more than cards like you mentioned, you should really consider opening your LP game A LOT more.

Anyways, thanks for the post. I dont know how this turned into a thread of me asking for some tips into me helping... lol. So sorry about that. But good luck to you. And keep posting. Thanks