Quote:
Originally Posted by DottMySaviour
Let's say I know my BB/hand is 0.1 (10BB/100hand), I buy-in at 100BB, I leave the table when I'm at 200BB. Can I apply Kelly criterion to find out my optimal bankroll with only these information? If not, what information do I need?
Is there any maths genius out there who can help me with this question?
I'm not really sure if kelly would apply and if it does I'm not sure if the way I've done it makes much sense but I'm a huge math nerd and this interested me.
So a win rate of 10bb/100 shows an average win rate but the calc for kelly needs different information. One way could be to look at your database in chunks of 100x hands(I label a session from here on out).
the kelly formula is: W – [(1 – W) / R]
Where:
W = Winning probability
R = Win/loss ratio
The process could be:
W: count your 100x hand sessions and take the winning sessions divided by the total sessions
R: divide the average gain in winning sessions by average loss in losing sessions
This would give you the optimal amount of your bankroll to risk on any one 100x hand session. Again I'm not really sure if my logic is right and if it is I'm not really sure how useful that would be.