Quote:
Originally Posted by Moose
So if the villain will call any hand with 51% equity on the first hand, the hero would in fact have a 49% chance of winning the showdown on the first hand, which is higher than the estimated 39%.
Not true. If villain only calls with hands that have 51% equity vs ATC, that means the
worst hand he calls with will win 51% of the time. His entire calling range will actually win more often, since it will also contain hands like AA/KK that win much more often than 51%.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Moose
Right, and if Sklansky's calculations were correct, if you have a 61% chance to win with optimal play then it stands to reason your first hand calling range is anything that's 61%+ against a random hand, so:
66+, A7s/A9o+, KTs/KJo+ would be worth a call on the first hand.
Equilab (which might be wrong) tells me the range that has 61%+ equity vs ATC is slightly different: 66+,A8s+,KTs+,ATo+,KQo
Against that range, ATC only wins 32.45% of the time at showdown.
I don't know how Sklansky came up with 39%, but a calling range of 22+,A2s+,K5s+,Q8s+,J9s+,A2o+,K7o+,Q9o+,JTo is one that would mean that ATC will lose 61% of the time, and win 39%.
If this game is two unemotional bots playing and they never alter their strategies, then I think pot odds and equity are the only things that matter. Bots don't "fold and wait for a better spot", like humans do. The BB just calls with anything that makes money as a call, doesn't he? With these pot odds, I think the bottom of his calling range is J4s or Q4o or T8o, as these all have close to 49% equity vs ATC. Maybe there
is some benefit to folding a few times and waiting for a bigger edge, but I'm not sure how one would go about deciding on it.
P.S. I'm not sure if I've read the book in which the situation as described in the top post is mentioned, but doesn't it just serve to say that "Even if you have a sub-optimal strategy of jamming any two cards, you're still not in bad shape even if villain calls 'correctly'"? i.e. You can jam with junk and you'll still win pretty often, so going all in blind isn't the worst strategy in the world... especially if you lack skill.
Last edited by ArtyMcFly; 06-18-2018 at 06:57 PM.