Hand History Database for Research (Beta) - Page 7 - Poker Theory

No, I believe we were thinking along the same lines. A format would be 6-handed PLO 2-5, or maybe just 6-handed PLO. But it would be nice to be able to aggregate the results for, let's say, just PLO, or just 6-handed.

What I was driving at was seeing if there was any difference between the number of played hands shown down in 10max NLHE 10-20 by a player that wins 1BB, or a player that loses 1 BB, etc.

Quote:

I'd even go a step further and say that a 4-handed 10max table that is just starting up is radically different than a 4-handed 10max table that is winding down, both of which are different than a 4-handed 6max. It would be fun to know if so, and by how much.

05-18-2009 , 06:53 PM

#152

chesterboy

adept

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,021

I think largest runs above/below EV in buyins would be pretty interesting.

05-20-2009 , 11:25 PM

#153

mastertop101

adept

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 723

I think it would be interesting to see the standard deviation of such stats as vpip, agression factor, etc. I suppose that might be a pain to compute though.

thanks, you rock.

05-21-2009 , 08:02 AM

#154

indianaV8

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,385

Thanks for all the suggestions. I will come back to these. In the last days I've been working on optimizing the DB and the import, eliminating duplicated hands, fixing bugs, etc. I should soon have about 700m hands DB parsed, so we will have more clue on some of the questions.

So I will come back to the above suggestions (and of all course, all programmers are encouraged to build examples and programs that answers these questions, then I would just need to run it against the full DB).

In the meantime (I will create a separate thread about that, for the fun of it) here is something interesting

05-21-2009 , 06:29 PM

#155

tencentsthedance

enthusiast

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 62

Thank You for your work indiana (and i will modify my chat-frequency immedeatly)!!!

Greetings tencentsthedance

05-30-2009 , 09:16 PM

#156

Hadis

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 2,918

Can you make a study that show what percentage of people who show(even once) their hands are losers vs people who automuck?

05-31-2009 , 06:30 AM

#157

pokouz

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 434

This thread is really great, thx indiana.

06-02-2009 , 03:12 PM

#158

spadebidder

Actually Shows Proof

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,905

Indiana - do you have any plans to build a database of tourney hands too?

As you know I'm creating some analysis code using your database, and I'd be very interesting in using tourney hands too.

06-07-2009 , 09:04 PM

#159

spadebidder

Actually Shows Proof

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,905

Indiana, I'm finishing up the new version of the all-in analyser, and I'll email it to you. I also have a very interesting community card analysis almost ready.

Here's what the latest looks like on the preflop analysis (sample database):

Code:

Site #0, 2 to 10 players, NL Hold'em
Number of hands analysed: 1630652
Preflop heads-up all-ins: 9797 (Once per 166 hands).

FAVORITE'S
Preflop equity  Mean%  Hands   Wins   Ties   Actual%  T-Test

[0.99 - 1.00]    .         0      0      0      .   
[0.98 - 0.99]    .         0      0      0      .   
[0.97 - 0.98]    .         0      0      0      .   
[0.96 - 0.97]    .         0      0      0      .   
[0.95 - 0.96]    .         0      0      0      .   
[0.94 - 0.95]  94.23%      7      7      0   100.00%    0.65
[0.93 - 0.94]  93.38%    110    103      1    94.09%    0.30
[0.92 - 0.93]  92.45%    107     97      2    91.59%   -0.34
[0.91 - 0.92]  91.45%     27     24      1    90.74%   -0.13
[0.90 - 0.91]  90.51%     10     10      0   100.00%    1.02
[0.89 - 0.90]  89.23%      6      6      0   100.00%    0.85
[0.88 - 0.89]  88.37%     15     13      1    90.00%    0.20
[0.87 - 0.88]  87.52%    102     88      1    86.76%   -0.23
[0.86 - 0.87]  86.43%     45     43      1    96.67%    2.00
[0.85 - 0.86]  85.53%     34     30      0    88.24%    0.45
[0.84 - 0.85]  84.46%     34     27      1    80.88%   -0.58
[0.83 - 0.84]  83.46%     32     26      1    82.81%   -0.10
[0.82 - 0.83]  82.40%    256    203      5    80.27%   -0.89
[0.81 - 0.82]  81.58%   1231    994     26    81.80%    0.21
[0.80 - 0.81]  80.69%    557    445      5    80.34%   -0.21
[0.79 - 0.80]  79.75%     50     40      1    81.00%    0.22
[0.78 - 0.79]  78.57%     23     19      1    84.78%    0.73
[0.77 - 0.78]  77.44%      9      6      0    66.67%   -0.77
[0.76 - 0.77]  76.62%     19     15      0    78.95%    0.24
[0.75 - 0.76]  75.41%    149    108      7    74.83%   -0.16
[0.74 - 0.75]  74.47%    432    299     27    72.34%   -1.02
[0.73 - 0.74]  73.59%    273    182     27    71.61%   -0.74
[0.72 - 0.73]  72.39%    208    134     11    67.07%   -1.72
[0.71 - 0.72]  71.46%    439    309     16    72.21%    0.35
[0.70 - 0.71]  70.52%    301    202     17    69.93%   -0.22
[0.69 - 0.70]  69.61%    416    262     27    66.23%   -1.50
[0.68 - 0.69]  68.43%    261    163     19    66.09%   -0.81
[0.67 - 0.68]  67.61%    270    175      8    66.30%   -0.46
[0.66 - 0.67]  66.52%    117     79      2    68.38%    0.42
[0.65 - 0.66]  65.64%    175    119      3    68.86%    0.90
[0.64 - 0.65]  64.53%    173    106      6    63.01%   -0.42
[0.63 - 0.64]  63.44%    121     81      2    67.77%    0.99
[0.62 - 0.63]  62.46%    134     84      2    63.43%    0.23
[0.61 - 0.62]  61.46%    119     70      2    59.66%   -0.40
[0.60 - 0.61]  60.42%    111     66      3    60.81%    0.08
[0.59 - 0.60]  59.56%    153     96      5    64.38%    1.21
[0.58 - 0.59]  58.48%    105     59      1    56.67%   -0.38
[0.57 - 0.58]  57.36%    230    135      4    59.57%    0.68
[0.56 - 0.57]  56.72%    665    352     12    53.83%   -1.50
[0.55 - 0.56]  55.40%    429    206      7    48.83%   -2.73
[0.54 - 0.55]  54.48%    484    266     10    55.99%    0.67
[0.53 - 0.54]  53.65%    349    178      4    51.58%   -0.78
[0.52 - 0.53]  52.51%    504    169    190    52.38%   -0.06
[0.51 - 0.52]  51.50%    154     75      3    49.68%   -0.45
[0.50 - 0.51]  50.41%    351     71    209    50.00%   -0.15

[    ALL    ]  67.94%   9797   6242    671    67.14%   -1.69
Chi-Square for Favorite = 118.29


UNDERDOG'S
Preflop equity  Mean%  Hands   Wins   Ties   Actual%  T-Test

[0.49 - 0.50]  49.59%    351     71    209    50.00%    0.15
[0.48 - 0.49]  48.50%    154     76      3    50.32%    0.45
[0.47 - 0.48]  47.49%    504    145    190    47.62%    0.06
[0.46 - 0.47]  46.35%    349    167      4    48.42%    0.78
[0.45 - 0.46]  45.52%    484    208     10    44.01%   -0.67
[0.44 - 0.45]  44.60%    429    216      7    51.17%    2.73
[0.43 - 0.44]  43.28%    665    301     12    46.17%    1.50
[0.42 - 0.43]  42.64%    230     91      4    40.43%   -0.68
[0.41 - 0.42]  41.52%    105     45      1    43.33%    0.38
[0.40 - 0.41]  40.44%    153     52      5    35.62%   -1.21
[0.39 - 0.40]  39.58%    111     42      3    39.19%   -0.08
[0.38 - 0.39]  38.54%    119     47      2    40.34%    0.40
[0.37 - 0.38]  37.54%    134     48      2    36.57%   -0.23
[0.36 - 0.37]  36.56%    121     38      2    32.23%   -0.99
[0.35 - 0.36]  35.47%    173     61      6    36.99%    0.42
[0.34 - 0.35]  34.36%    175     53      3    31.14%   -0.90
[0.33 - 0.34]  33.48%    117     36      2    31.62%   -0.42
[0.32 - 0.33]  32.39%    270     87      8    33.70%    0.46
[0.31 - 0.32]  31.57%    261     79     19    33.91%    0.81
[0.30 - 0.31]  30.39%    416    127     27    33.77%    1.50
[0.29 - 0.30]  29.48%    301     82     17    30.07%    0.22
[0.28 - 0.29]  28.54%    439    114     16    27.79%   -0.35
[0.27 - 0.28]  27.61%    208     63     11    32.93%    1.72
[0.26 - 0.27]  26.41%    273     64     27    28.39%    0.74
[0.25 - 0.26]  25.53%    432    106     27    27.66%    1.02
[0.24 - 0.25]  24.59%    149     34      7    25.17%    0.16
[0.23 - 0.24]  23.38%     19      4      0    21.05%   -0.24
[0.22 - 0.23]  22.56%      9      3      0    33.33%    0.77
[0.21 - 0.22]  21.43%     23      3      1    15.22%   -0.73
[0.20 - 0.21]  20.25%     50      9      1    19.00%   -0.22
[0.19 - 0.20]  19.31%    557    107      5    19.66%    0.21
[0.18 - 0.19]  18.42%   1231    211     26    18.20%   -0.21
[0.17 - 0.18]  17.60%    256     48      5    19.73%    0.89
[0.16 - 0.17]  16.54%     32      5      1    17.19%    0.10
[0.15 - 0.16]  15.54%     34      6      1    19.12%    0.58
[0.14 - 0.15]  14.47%     34      4      0    11.76%   -0.45
[0.13 - 0.14]  13.57%     45      1      1     3.33%   -2.00
[0.12 - 0.13]  12.48%    102     13      1    13.24%    0.23
[0.11 - 0.12]  11.63%     15      1      1    10.00%   -0.20
[0.10 - 0.11]  10.77%      6      0      0     0.00%   -0.85
[0.09 - 0.10]   9.49%     10      0      0     0.00%   -1.02
[0.08 - 0.09]   8.55%     27      2      1     9.26%    0.13
[0.07 - 0.08]   7.55%    107      8      2     8.41%    0.34
[0.06 - 0.07]   6.62%    110      6      1     5.91%   -0.30
[0.05 - 0.06]   5.77%      7      0      0     0.00%   -0.65
[0.04 - 0.05]    .         0      0      0      .   
[0.03 - 0.04]    .         0      0      0      .   
[0.02 - 0.03]    .         0      0      0      .   
[0.01 - 0.02]    .         0      0      0      .   
[0.00 - 0.01]    .         0      0      0      .   

[    ALL    ]  32.06%   9797   2884    671    32.86%    1.69
Chi-Square for Underdog = 120.31

I still want to add one more feature and it will be ready.

06-09-2009 , 04:51 PM

#160

buzz12586

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 1,292

So the above post pretty much disproves all of the "omg, poker is rigged" people, correct?

06-09-2009 , 06:18 PM

#161

spadebidder

Actually Shows Proof

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,905

Quote:

Originally Posted by buzz12586

So the above post pretty much disproves all of the "omg, poker is rigged" people, correct?

Well, it will with a larger sample, when broken down by sites and by stakes, and along with some other analysis I'm working on for community cards. The above is just a small taste and a small sample, and I'm still enhancing the distribution tests on it (the chi-square result shown is wrong).

06-22-2009 , 04:39 PM

#162

canarymofo

adept

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 935

So one "nh" or "ty" every session marks me as a probable winning player hmmm

I should start chatting more so people think I'm a big loser

07-07-2009 , 06:36 PM

#163

hungryduck

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 18

Good idea:
The case is hardly closed on preflop hand rankings. A ranking based on observed showdown EV over a billion-hand datamine would be interesting to many i think.
\Good idea
Edit: Observed showdown winnings would also be fine

07-21-2009 , 09:41 AM

#164

Legalizeit2

newbie

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 47

Quote:

Originally Posted by indianaV8

Lol I was laughing so hard when looking at this, this thread is great!
It's not like you get surprised or anything, just so funny to be able to prove it.

07-21-2009 , 10:18 PM

#165

findus

enthusiast

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 58

Quote:

Originally Posted by indianaV8

What is the scale down the left? All the numbers are minus... all players in the sample are -EV or what?

Thanks.

07-22-2009 , 02:13 AM

#166

lolepicfailimo

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 305

Quote:

Originally Posted by Piskisti

Just for the fun of it. Could it be possible that some suits of cards are favored over another. For example it would be nice to know if spades are played more than hearts. Suit symbols could be processed differently in our brain, so it could result in different ways of playing them

Quote:

Originally Posted by RustyBrooks

Something I've always been a little curous about is... does a 4 player game play the same if it's at a 6max or a 10max table? I suspect that possibly it does not, because 6max regs are more used to playing short than 10max regs, their "full table" game is closer to optimal 4max play than a FR table's "full table" game.

This is a little hard to quantify but might be interesting to see how a dozen of the "standard" stats vary for cases like that (vpip, pfr, wtsd, w$sd etc?)

those 2 are very interesting (the first one is not as far fetched as it may sound) so BUMP

this thread is awesome. great work indiana!!

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