Quote:
Originally Posted by toebester
Doing a sim on a hand I played a few weeks ago live, with another very competent player. Attached is the link to how GTO Range Builder thinks the river should be played, given the game tree I gave it.
The actual hand + ranges, while interesting, are irrelevant to my question.
Facing a bet of 75, why does GTORB advocate villain jamming only KQ, the nuts? MDF for the jam is 38%, and hero is only calling down 34.4% (only calling down nuts), so surely its a spot for GTORB to throw in some infrequent bluff raises.
Link to GTORB Solution
I am new to the solver's, so any help would be welcome.
The issue is blockers. The 34.4% is the frequency with which the hero calls when the villain shoves the range that the GTO strategy plays. This means that villain is only shoving KQ and with that hand he still gets call 34.4%. If you look at the % of the hero's range that is KQ at that point in time GTORB says it is 2.78 * 16 = 44.48% whic his the frequency with which hero would call if vilain shoved a hand with no blockers.
GTORB shows the action frequencies that you would observe if you were to imagine watching two players play the GTO strategies against each other. In a situation with blockers the observed frequencies that you would see might not match the frequencies that you would face if you deviated from GTO and bluffed with ATC.
As an extreme example, imagine two players playing a shove/fold HU game 1000bbs deep (this is solved in the MOP. In this case the GTO strategy is to only jam AA and only call with AA.
The observed calling frequency that you would see in this game would be extremely low, because when a shove occured it would block 5 of the 6 AA combos. However, if you were to try shoving a different hand link KK you would get called 6x as often as the observed calling frequency when only AA is shoved.
Blockers + GTO can be super tricky, but hopefully, this makes sense.
-swc