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GTO Avg Pot size and showdown % GTO Avg Pot size and showdown %

06-12-2018 , 09:41 PM
Random questions for you theorists:

What would the average pot size in bb be for 6max GTO players?

What percent of hands would go to showdown?

Obviously we can't know for sure, but any approximations?

I thought of this because I sometimes watch 2.50/5 Zoom, which is supposedly pretty GTOish (I'm questioning that now!), and the pots are huge. I took a 200 hand sample, put it in a spread sheet, and got an average pot size of $448 or 90bbs! Also, out of the 200 hands 173 of them (86.5%) went to showdown... Are these numbers at all reasonable considering GTO, or are these guys just spewing chips?? I mean I hear it's supposedly a very strong pool but that seems ridiculous. Seems like they just don't fold!

Another question, why is the avg pot size in the lobby so low? It hovers around $60-$75 dollars. At first I thought this might be all time average and people used to play waaaay tighter, but it moves up AND down, so clearly this can't be the case. Noticing this discrepancy, is what lead me to do these calculations in the first place.

Love to hear your thoughts on all this, posted here because y'all are smart, and I'm interested how these numbers compare to GTO play.

Also I realize the sample isn't big, and I may have caught it at an especially aggressive time, but play like this seems to be pretty consistent in this game.

Thanks in advance...
GTO Avg Pot size and showdown % Quote
06-12-2018 , 09:56 PM
Wanted to add that obviously the theoretical questions are highly dependent on stack size, not sure what the average stack size in this game is, but maybe lets assume 200bb. I really don't feel like calculating all that (lol), but I will do it for these hands if there is a lot of interest (I will leave the replayer open). I would also be interested in what it would be for standard 100bb stacks.
GTO Avg Pot size and showdown % Quote
06-12-2018 , 11:17 PM
When you press the OBSERVE button (which is presumably what you've been doing to see those 500NLz pots), Stars shows a "highlight reel" of something like the biggest 10 pots of the previous hour, so you'll often just see cooler after cooler, and it's not at all representative of what poker is really like.

The (smaller) pot sizes shown in the normal 500NL lobby will be much more representative than the observed highlight hands, but I think the "average pot size" on each table is based on a tiny sample like the last 10 hands or something meaningless like that (which is why a table that looks "juicy" can turn out to actually be full of nits, and it's just that there was a recent aces vs kings stack off).

FWIW, I believe the WTSD number of top players is considerably higher than you'll see for regnits at the lowest stakes (but it's nowhere near 86% lol). In tough games, there's more checking back (instead of c-betting) on the flop, but also a lot more bluff-catching on the river.
I wouldn't like to put a number on what proportion of all hands go to a showdown, however, as I have no idea. An awful lot of hands don't see a flop, and even when they do, the action will go check-bet-fold about 50% of the time. It's been a while since I played cash or looked at my tracker, but I remember having many short sessions of 200 hands where the biggest win I had was <20bb. It's especially the case in Zoom games that pots are much smaller in 2018 than they were 5 years ago. Bet-sizes and c-betting frequencies have fallen somewhat and people don't stack off light like they used to.

Last edited by ArtyMcFly; 06-12-2018 at 11:28 PM.
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06-13-2018 , 01:52 AM
ooooooooooooooooooooooohhhhhh

makes so much sense lol thanks for the clarification, it was driving me crazy.

doh!

I was assuming it was in real time.

I do still think they are interesting questions...
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