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Old 05-16-2017, 05:47 PM   #1
Ah Ad Ac As
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The Future of Poker Theory

The future of LGTOP (Live Game Theory Optimal Play) will deviate from OGTOP (Online Game Theory Optimal Play) due to ubiquitous and unavoidable live tells. Online players are better at OGTOP than live players are at LGTOP due to accessibility of repetition. LGTOP is still in its infancy, but someone who can effectively read tells through equal repetition or intuitive genius and understands the current accepted OGTOP would change what the optimal line would be in any spot.

Example 1 is a future poker human crushing a perfect OGTOPlayer:

Imagine Doug Polk playing live poker against Doug Polk 2.0. Doug Polk says, "GTO and lol live reads." Doug Polk 2.0 says, "GTO and lol anyone who says, 'lol live reads.'." Let's assume that no matter how balanced Doug Polk's body language is, Doug Polk 2.0 will make some incredible calls, folds and bluffs more often than not. Doug Polk will change his lines because he believes that his opponent is unbalanced in his OGTOP. Meanwhile he is not adjusting his body language because that would be laughable. Doug Polk 2.0 crushes Doug Polk.

Example 2 is a future poker human using a LGTOP line against a fish instead of the current accepted OGTOP line:

Doug Polk 2.0 raises the button with AKss. Aggressive fish flats in the big blind. Heads up to the flop, effective stacks 1000bb. Flop is A6Jhhh. Fish leads for 2x pot. OGTOP says do something in between call and raise. Doug Polk 2.0 calls. 30bb pot. Turn is 7h. Board is A6J7hhhh. Aggro fish leads 2x pot. OGTOP says to do something in between fold and call. Doug Polk 2.0 Calls. River 150BB. 2S for a board of A6J72hhhhs. Villain shoves but immediately after the bet he pulls his hands back to their resting position too quickly almost as if he is feeling guilty that his hand will be caught in the cookie jar and Doug Polk 2.0 has a very strong sense that he is bluffing here with no heart. Doug Polk 2.0 calls using LGTOP that he has honed through a career of studying body language and OGTOP with equal amounts of gusto. Villain rolls over KdKs good for 1 pair. Doug Polk 2.0 scoops futuristic 2000bb pot while Doug Polk is still in the upswing lab trying to figure out how Doug Polk 2.0 was making such thin calls.

The future of poker is LGTOP. Just ask Doug Polk 2.0.
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Old 05-16-2017, 07:05 PM   #2
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Re: The Future of Poker Theory

I think you're over emphasizing live tells tbh. I don't play live often, but even when I have a bluff that is similar to a strong hand I view it the same way -- there is no emotional attachment to the hands anymore as I've played enough hands of poker to really detach it all and just view any spot as +EV or -EV and play accordingly.
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Old 05-16-2017, 07:49 PM   #3
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Re: The Future of Poker Theory

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Originally Posted by Ah Ad Ac As View Post
he pulls his hands back to their resting position too quickly ... and Doug Polk 2.0 has a very strong sense that he is bluffing here with no heart.
From the speed with which villain withdraws his hands, not only does Doug Polk 2.0 know villain is bluffing, but he also knows that he isn't bluffing while holding a weak heart. Nice read.
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Old 05-16-2017, 11:38 PM   #4
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Re: The Future of Poker Theory

Reads are very reliable with very bad players, and even with a decent player you will find some tells. But yeah, it's not as much of a part of the game as people would like to think.
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Old 05-17-2017, 12:11 AM   #5
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Re: The Future of Poker Theory

I'm down with playing in imagination land as well, but I was really hoping for a different type of discussion based on the title. A few years ago I made a post about the future of poker. Here's a clip:

Quote:
There is no magic formula for solving real poker. The Fundamental Theorem of Poker was a good start. The concepts of game theory got us even closer. I believe that the aspiring poker player has a lot of work to do away from the table if he or she is to separate themselves from the pack, so to speak.

Those of you who are just starting out have it rough. I'm sorry to say that you're playing catch up against those who are studying the game. If your counterparts keep studying, you may never catch up no matter how much you study.
What's the point? Keep studying and improving.

Now? I think that in the future we will be solving simple multiway situations down to the nanobet.

I also think that if we don't soon come up with a solution for the possibility of opponent collusion in multiway pots and how that affects an individual player's decision, then we won't find an answer to all multiway decisions.
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Old 05-17-2017, 03:24 PM   #6
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Re: The Future of Poker Theory

How do the tells relate to game theory? Theory must be the same for live/online poker and reads are only deviations/exploitation.
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Old 05-18-2017, 04:40 PM   #7
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Re: The Future of Poker Theory

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Originally Posted by Shamway99 View Post
How do the tells relate to game theory? Theory must be the same for live/online poker and reads are only deviations/exploitation.
+1. There is no way to truly change optimal play. Online and live play differ because online players have access to information that players don't have live and vice versa. The online play trends closer to optimal strategies because the data is more accurate and is more extensive than information one can gather live.
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Old 05-19-2017, 10:29 AM   #8
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Re: The Future of Poker Theory

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Originally Posted by Ah Ad Ac As View Post
Let's assume that no matter how balanced Doug Polk's body language is, Doug Polk 2.0 will make some incredible calls
Balanced body language means no tells. How will Doug 2.0 make those reads, by using psychic powers?
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Old 05-20-2017, 07:43 AM   #9
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Re: The Future of Poker Theory

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shamway99 View Post
How do the tells relate to game theory? Theory must be the same for live/online poker and reads are only deviations/exploitation.
I'm glad you said that... I had high hopes for this thread too, but unfortunately you don't seem to understand how GTO works. And yeah, you seem to be putting too much stock in physical reads as well. The whole post was a little confused buddy.. Funnily enough, this does highlight exactly how Poker will change in the future.

In short... People will learn more about Poker Theory.

I happen to believe that my understanding of theory is more advanced than anybody else's in the world. And so, I believe that I can see exactly how players will advance in the future.

There won't be much change at the top. The best players need to play GTO heavily and the Poker world already understands GTO well.

Exploitative Poker is the place where the advancements will happen. I have only just worked out the theory behind exploiting, and my book isn't out yet, so very few people understand it like I do. Once the world does understand exploitative theory like I do, everything will change.

Poker will not be mathematical, we won't be calculating nano bets. We will go back to the old school. We will be reading faces and exploiting with every bet. GTO will be frowned upon, and will probably be banned from websites. The skill of a poker player won't be based on how many GTO plays he knows, it will be the same as normal sports, it will be the players attributes that separate the men from the boys. Bravery, creativity, wisdom, these are the qualities that will make a player great.

This change will be huge for Poker. The profit at the bottom will be massively magnified, and so those at the top will be raised up higher than ever before.

But before any of this happens, we need to have a revolution of sorts... Everyone needs to turn their back on GTO and switch to the dominant exploitative style. Hilariously, this is going to be far more easy for a beginner to do than an expert. Experts will struggle to understand exploitative theory, but it comes naturally to a beginner. Once a beginner reads my book they will instantly be more advanced than a seasoned pro. The market will suddenly open up. And we will all be rich.

There is a reasonable chance that my own book won't do well, but, this change is inevitable. Sooner or later everyone will learn what I teach whether they learn it from me or not... Exploitative is the dominant style. It will take over. And I can't wait!
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Old 05-20-2017, 07:49 AM   #10
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Re: The Future of Poker Theory

@Yadoula8 I think you are missing your calling being a poker pro. You should be a politician. That career path will allow you to maximize your EV due to your ability to use so many words to express absolutely no meaningful ideas.

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Old 05-20-2017, 07:52 AM   #11
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Re: The Future of Poker Theory

Oh, did I not make it clear that I think GTO will die and exploitative will take over?
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Old 05-20-2017, 08:06 AM   #12
just_grindin
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Re: The Future of Poker Theory

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Originally Posted by Yadoula8 View Post
Oh, did I not make it clear that I think GTO will die and exploitative will take over?
Yes but Idk how it is meaningful. As we've discussed before optimal play and exploitive play are not mutually exclusive between human players. All the best players understand that as well. It's like saying "in the future poker will be played with cards".

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Old 05-21-2017, 04:03 PM   #13
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Re: The Future of Poker Theory

I feel that long post very much resembles how some people like to talk about how the future will be great once everyone reads Ayn Rand and throws off the shackles of conventional society.
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Old 05-22-2017, 02:17 PM   #14
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Re: The Future of Poker Theory

I think GTO-type players, using language fluidly as it's supposed to be used, should exhibit less tells because they are thinking about EV decisions and not $ so they should be difficult if not impossible to beat.
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Old 05-22-2017, 02:20 PM   #15
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Re: The Future of Poker Theory

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yadoula8 View Post
I'm glad you said that... I had high hopes for this thread too, but unfortunately you don't seem to understand how GTO works. And yeah, you seem to be putting too much stock in physical reads as well. The whole post was a little confused buddy.. Funnily enough, this does highlight exactly how Poker will change in the future.

In short... People will learn more about Poker Theory.

I happen to believe that my understanding of theory is more advanced than anybody else's in the world. And so, I believe that I can see exactly how players will advance in the future.

There won't be much change at the top. The best players need to play GTO heavily and the Poker world already understands GTO well.

Exploitative Poker is the place where the advancements will happen. I have only just worked out the theory behind exploiting, and my book isn't out yet, so very few people understand it like I do. Once the world does understand exploitative theory like I do, everything will change.

Poker will not be mathematical, we won't be calculating nano bets. We will go back to the old school. We will be reading faces and exploiting with every bet. GTO will be frowned upon, and will probably be banned from websites. The skill of a poker player won't be based on how many GTO plays he knows, it will be the same as normal sports, it will be the players attributes that separate the men from the boys. Bravery, creativity, wisdom, these are the qualities that will make a player great.

This change will be huge for Poker. The profit at the bottom will be massively magnified, and so those at the top will be raised up higher than ever before.

But before any of this happens, we need to have a revolution of sorts... Everyone needs to turn their back on GTO and switch to the dominant exploitative style. Hilariously, this is going to be far more easy for a beginner to do than an expert. Experts will struggle to understand exploitative theory, but it comes naturally to a beginner. Once a beginner reads my book they will instantly be more advanced than a seasoned pro. The market will suddenly open up. And we will all be rich.

There is a reasonable chance that my own book won't do well, but, this change is inevitable. Sooner or later everyone will learn what I teach whether they learn it from me or not... Exploitative is the dominant style. It will take over. And I can't wait!
I agree with most of this except for turning your back on GTO, which couldn't be done even if tried. I think accelerate GTO to its natural conclusion, and then poker will be fun again. I think the future will be new and different poker games, which means the mathematicians have to start all over again, while humans who have an intuitive grasp on what poker is will continue to play against other humans. Computers will still have ground-work of course for game theory and over-arching concepts.

Last edited by leavesofliberty; 05-22-2017 at 02:28 PM.
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Old 05-22-2017, 02:21 PM   #16
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Re: The Future of Poker Theory

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Originally Posted by Brokenstars View Post
I think you're over emphasizing live tells tbh. I don't play live often, but even when I have a bluff that is similar to a strong hand I view it the same way -- there is no emotional attachment to the hands anymore as I've played enough hands of poker to really detach it all and just view any spot as +EV or -EV and play accordingly.
Essentially this, you're going to engage in an entirely different psychology. People will no longer perceive bluffs as bluffs, and will merely perceive bluffs as EV decisions. People are going to start thinking more like robots in the future.
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Old 05-22-2017, 02:25 PM   #17
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Re: The Future of Poker Theory

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yadoula8 View Post
Oh, did I not make it clear that I think GTO will die and exploitative will take over?
I think the opposite will occur and everyone will start to play more GTO in the short run. What will happen to NLHE, and how good will computers be at this game?
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Old 05-23-2017, 09:36 AM   #18
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Re: The Future of Poker Theory

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Originally Posted by just_grindin View Post
+1. There is no way to truly change optimal play. Online and live play differ because online players have access to information that players don't have live and vice versa. The online play trends closer to optimal strategies because the data is more accurate and is more extensive than information one can gather live.
What if you define optimal as most profitable? Then there are lots of ways that live differs from online in seeking most profitable strategies. In live its really rare for players to even attempt equilibrium strategies and they are guaranteed to fail at that attempts because they cant even track or randomize their own frequencies let alone villains. Most live players have patterns and tendencies that are observable and exploitable but there are some that are better at that kind of exploitation than others.

In regards to "the future of poker theory" I think OP you are actually talking about the past. There is plenty of good theory about exploitative play and live players will likely profit from that theory more than studying equilibrium strategies.
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Old 05-23-2017, 10:35 AM   #19
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Re: The Future of Poker Theory

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Originally Posted by fisherfolk View Post
What if you define optimal as most profitable?
There is a clear definition of optimal play so it doesn't make sense to change the definition to fit some argument. It's the same as long as the rules of the poker variant you are playing are the same as the optimal strategy's. This holds true whether you are playing live or online.

It's also difficult to compare exploitive strategies vs an optimal strategy because exploitation occurs at isolated spots in the game tree so it's unclear how the exploiting strategy would fair overall vs a player that you could choose to exploit in some instances compared to the optimal strategy vs the same player.

Quote:
Originally Posted by fisherfolk View Post
Then there are lots of ways that live differs from online in seeking most profitable strategies. In live its really rare for players to even attempt equilibrium strategies and they are guaranteed to fail at that attempts because they cant even track or randomize their own frequencies let alone villains. Most live players have patterns and tendencies that are observable and exploitable but there are some that are better at that kind of exploitation than others.
I'm not even sure what argument you are trying to make or what part of this disagrees with what I said? All of that is related to information gathering and use which as I said is the only thing that differs between online and live play.


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Old 05-24-2017, 06:39 PM   #20
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Re: The Future of Poker Theory

If a casino did manage to create a normal Holdem game where GTO was restricted in some way, every single one of us would blatantly want to play there!

It would be amazing. Everyone would be forced to exploit. It would change the whole game without changing anything and this new Poker would be sick!

You say it's impossible, but how hard is it really?... Surely software could be developed which would analyse a players plays to tell them how close they are playing to GTO?? It could give them a daily update or something. It has to be possible, surely???

These casinos have pretty big budgets.
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Old 05-24-2017, 07:00 PM   #21
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Re: The Future of Poker Theory

Dear Yadoula8

We are going to need you to raise wet boards more often and fold the river more.

Love,
Retarded Poker Site

Do you even think about stuff before you write it?
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Old 05-24-2017, 07:02 PM   #22
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Re: The Future of Poker Theory

If you want to restrict GTO, make it harder to get heads-up in pots. The Orleans is currently experimenting with what they are calling "free flop" hold em, where there is no betting preflop.
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Old 05-25-2017, 03:39 AM   #23
Yadoula8
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Re: The Future of Poker Theory

Lol rusty u didn't answer my question. U don't seem to be able to comprehend playing poker without GTO, but I'm pretty sure it will be easy enough on all accounts
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Old 05-25-2017, 09:36 AM   #24
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Re: The Future of Poker Theory

I don't often check this forum so I don't know if this is a troll or if you lot are used to such half-baked quackery.

Rusty's reply was very much an answer to your ideas. The only way to force me to not play too close to optimally is for the site/casino to step in at some point and tell me what I have to do instead e.g. shove wider pre, fold more rivers. And the idea of someone other than me making decisions about what range I can play is horrible.
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Old 05-25-2017, 10:05 AM   #25
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Re: The Future of Poker Theory

Yadoula is on to something, but why stop at poker?

Sorry, Magnus Carlsen, your moves are too good. If you don't start making some dumb rook sacrifices, you'll be banned from the next tournament.

Floyd Mayweather, you don't get hit often enough. Either take some more punches in the face, or forfeit your belt.

Golden State, the playoffs this year are boring. Let teams play closer games against you, or your salary cap will be slashed.
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