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Old 02-12-2018, 04:48 PM   #1
statmanhal
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Fold Equity Function

I’m developing an analytical EV model for an all-in or river bet that includes a fold equity function. I believe such a function should have a ‘lazy S’ shape. Low fold equity for small bets, then a fairly rapid rise, leveling off to approach 100% as the bet size increases.

Recognizing that a lot depends on circumstances, here are values that I used for betting against tight, average and loose players. The general equation is

fe = 1 - 1/(1+exp(A*Bet/Pot-4)), where A determines the curve steepness.

Fold Equity Function
Bet/Pot Tight Avg. Loose
0.10 0.030.020.02
0.300.060.040.04
0.500.110.080.05
0.750.250.150.09
1.000.480.270.15
1.250.710.440.25
1.500.860.620.37
1.750.940.780.51
2.000.980.880.65
3.001.000.990.95

Any comments?
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Old 02-12-2018, 07:55 PM   #2
AllTheCheese
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Re: Fold Equity Function

Just commenting on the output, but it seems way too stationy. If people are folding only ~8% of the time to half pot otr, they are getting value owned. They'd have to be continuing with busted draws.
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Old 02-13-2018, 12:07 AM   #3
statmanhal
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Re: Fold Equity Function

Thanks for the comment.

Any idea of what you would use for fold equity for a half pot river bet with no other info other than an average player ?
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Old 02-13-2018, 03:20 AM   #4
AllTheCheese
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Re: Fold Equity Function

That would be hard for me but possibly easy for others. I stopped playing online poker as a serious pursuit after BF and have since lost all my hand histories. But I would imagine anybody with a million+ tracked hands can give you a good idea how often different sizing takes it down.

My guess for half pot would be ~35%, but I'm not sure. I picked that number because my instinct says it can't be less than 20% or more than 50%.
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Old 02-13-2018, 11:03 AM   #5
robert_utk
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Re: Fold Equity Function

The complication is the player pool modeling. What stakes? What sites? Super cool and interesting though! Ultimately the equation could be informed by a priori and use classical or modern bayesian methods to generate a perfect bet size for any particular opponent
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