I’m developing an analytical EV model for an all-in or river bet that includes a fold equity function. I believe such a function should have a ‘lazy S’ shape. Low fold equity for small bets, then a fairly rapid rise, leveling off to approach 100% as the bet size increases.
Recognizing that a lot depends on circumstances, here are values that I used for betting against tight, average and loose players. The general equation is
fe = 1 - 1/(1+exp(A*Bet/Pot-4)), where A determines the curve steepness.
Fold Equity Function
Bet/Pot | Tight | Avg. | Loose |
0.10 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
0.30 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
0.50 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.05 |
0.75 | 0.25 | 0.15 | 0.09 |
1.00 | 0.48 | 0.27 | 0.15 |
1.25 | 0.71 | 0.44 | 0.25 |
1.50 | 0.86 | 0.62 | 0.37 |
1.75 | 0.94 | 0.78 | 0.51 |
2.00 | 0.98 | 0.88 | 0.65 |
3.00 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.95 |
Any comments?