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Flop bluffing frequency question Flop bluffing frequency question

08-18-2018 , 01:10 PM
Hi. I’m cross posting this from the Books and Publications thread for varied responses.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sisyphusonroids
i just studied through Part 5: Whether to Bet or Check in Position

everything is clear and makes sense, except for one thing...

we are supposed to have a certain bluff:value ratio depending on how many streets of value we plan to be using. however, how do we know which ratio to use when there's both 3 street and 2 street hands in our range on a certain flop (which, i imagine, will most likely be the case)?

example: we open btn, bb calls. flop is K93r... we will have AA/KK/AK/99/K9 in our range.. all potentially 3 street hands. we will have K8s-K2s/KT/K8o/QQ-TT also in our range... all likely less than 3 street hands..

so, when find ourselves on the flop here, with none of these hands, but a potential bluff hand that would be somewhere between the 1:1 and the 2.5:1 ratio (ie, its a bluff that we would bet with if 3 streets, but fold if 2 streets)... how do we decide?
Flop bluffing frequency question Quote
08-18-2018 , 04:04 PM
There's no fixed or "certain" frequency or ratio to aim at (Janda was just giving a guideline for how things kind of work out on average), but I'd just list out (and count) all the combos that make sense as flop bets "for value", and then pick an appropriate number of weak hands to balance those v-bets, given the understanding that on boards like this villain will be check-folding at a fairly high frequency. (i.e. you can bluff more if you think villain is over-folding).

You can't really identify all the "triple barrel" or "two street bluffs" immediately, because you don't know how the board will run out, but you'd prefer to c-bet bluff with hands that either have 4+ outs on the flop, or that can pick up equity on the turn. e.g. If the flop is Kh 9s 3c, then 87s in hearts, spades or clubs all have the potential to turn a monster combo draw, which you can confidently barrel with, whereas a hand like 76dd has very little going for it, as it will never have more than 8 outs on the turn (more commonly it will have 4 or none), and some of those won't be clean outs, due to the lack of a BDFD.

Let's have a look at that board anyway:
If your BTN range is something like 40% (e.g. something like 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q8s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,64s+,5 3s+,43s,A2o+,K8o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o,98o) then on the flop, you want to bet your sets, two pairs, your overpair, and probably KT+ for value*.
On that K93r flop, that's only 72 combos of KT or better. To balance those 72 combos, you'd try to find roughly 144 combos of weak made hands and bluffs (if you're aiming for a 1:2 value:bluff ratio). So you could choose A3 (bottom pair), 22, maybe 44 and 55 to bet for protection, and then add all the gutshots (48 combos) and everything with 2 backdoors (e.g. 3 combos of 87s would have a BDFD+BDSD, 3 of T8s, 3 of J8s, 3 of J7s etc, 3 each of 54s, 65s, A2s etc).
On this board it's hard to find many really good bluffs, because the board is so dry, so it's probably GTO to bet a lot of low ranked hands even without BDFDs, because it's hard for villain to continue very often. You probably even want to c-bet a bunch of your weakest Ax as well.

Since you're checking back the weak Kx, plus QQ-TT and all (?) your 9x, you'll still have plenty of hands that can delay c-bet the turn (some will improve to trips or two pairs), or call a turn probe, and you'll pick up some straight draws even with the "air" that you don't bet the flop with.

When you do bet the flop and get called, some of your flop v-betting hands will become check-backs on some turn cards (you have very few combos that will almost always triple for value), while some of your bluffs might have turned into monsters (e.g. gutshots that binked a 4 outer), so now you have to count your v-bets again (it will be fewer than the 72 you had on the flop), and then find roughly the same number of bluff combos to barrel with (if you're aiming for a 1:1 value:bluff ratio on this street). Maybe you give up with some of the weaker stuff that didn't turn a BDFD, for example. Ideally, you want the bulk of your barreling range to have "robust equity" and/or have a blocker to villain's call-down range, because the plan will be to triple barrel with around half the combos that bluff the turn.

* Perhaps you can put K8 or K7 into your flop value range (although you wouldn't go for 3 streets unless you improved to 2pr+). I'm not sure where the cutoff point for the bottom of your "value range" would be, as I haven't run this through a solver.
Flop bluffing frequency question Quote
08-18-2018 , 05:02 PM
Ok. So do we just bet ever hand that makes reasonable sense on the flop. Whether it’s a 2 street hand, 3 street hand or a bluff that makes sense... just judging each holding on it’s own merit independently... and that process, repeated on each street for each possible turn/river iteration... will result in roughly the right ratios?

If that’s the case then we don’t really have to think on the flop “how many value combos do I have? How many of them are 2 vs 3 street on average(we can’t know for sure what may change on the turn) How many bluffs do I want for balance? Does this hand fit into those frequencies?”

Instead all we need to think is... does this hand make good sense to bet now or not?

Or am I still missing it? Thanks again
Flop bluffing frequency question Quote
08-18-2018 , 07:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sisyphusonroids
Instead all we need to think is... does this hand make good sense to bet now or not?
That's basically what I do, but I'm not very good at poker.

If you run some (dry) flops through solvers, you can get very complicated solutions that are pretty difficult to make much sense of, because unfortunately the majority of combos don't fall into the categories of "obvious value bet" and "obvious semi-bluff" or "obvious protection bet". The combos that do fall into those categories are clear enough (e.g. bet your sets and two pairs, usually bet your OESDs), but only a solver can tell you which of your other "air" hands have a higher EV as a bet or a check. When there's no OESDs or flush draws, it's pretty hard to work out which hands are the "obvious" bluffs.
For instance, it might feel natural to bet all your gutshots IP (and that's probably fine on K93r, because the gutters also block top pair and middle pair), but a solver might suggest checking back the gutshots that have BDFDs, or conversely it might say to mostly bet the ones with BDFDs, but check the ones without. Meanwhile, the solver might say to bet some combos that appear to have whiffed completely, in preference to some hands that clearly have more equity vs villain's continuance range. Some ace highs will get bet as bluffs, while others can get a modicum of thin value. Poker is hard.

Tbh, as long as you make the correct decisions with the "obvious" combos (e.g. you always bet with the obvious value hands and sensible bluffs, and you don't bet with hands that clearly do better as check backs), what you do with everything else doesn't matter massively, as most combos will have a similarly low EV whichever action you take, and your results with them will get lost in variance. (Solvers often use mixed strats for all the "meh" hands, sometimes betting, sometimes checking).
e.g. You could bet A7 or 55 on K93 (hoping for a fold) and it will be fine, but you're not making a huge mistake by checking them back, because those combos only have a low EV whatever you do. If you checked back 99 (middle set), however, that would be a huge mistake, because it's a slam-dunk value bet.

You just want to have some kind of balance between your value bets and bluffs, such that villain won't realise "This guy is so value-heavy" or "This guy bluffs way too much". You don't have to make it 2:1 or 1:1 on every flop/turn, but try to be conscious of how good a flop is for your range. If you know you have loads of strong value hands in your range (which you'll bet for value), then you can/should also bet a lot of weak stuff too to balance. You certainly don't have to literally count all your combos on every flop and then use a ratio. In a single-raised BTNvBB pot, you're gonna have 400+ combos in total, but probably less than 50 are value bets that should be c-bet 100% of the time. On some boards you'll easily find 100+ "decent bluffs" to also bet (you'll have more OESDs and FDs, overpairs etc), but on boards like K93r or 772r, it will be trickier to find them, because so many hands have little to no connection, and can arguably do well as either bets or checks.
Flop bluffing frequency question Quote
08-18-2018 , 08:20 PM
Sounds good. Thank you. Btw, you sound like you’re good at poker. Do you play online or live?
Flop bluffing frequency question Quote

      
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