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Fedor Holz (the all-time GOAT) missing +EV shoves? Fedor Holz (the all-time GOAT) missing +EV shoves?

03-23-2018 , 02:04 AM
Hi, I am reviewing some of these Fedor vids and typing hands into my ICM machine and there have been a few spots where Fedor should have been able to shove any two cards at equilibrium (IE I am running into spots where Fedor is missing shoves that are unexploiteable) So who is right the GOAT ICM software (ICMIZER) or the GOAT donkament player (Fedor Holz)?
Fedor Holz (the all-time GOAT) missing +EV shoves? Quote
03-23-2018 , 04:20 AM
You need to be careful there. Being able to profitably shove any two cards at equilibrium does NOT imply that you can profitably shove any two cards against every possible strategy. These shoves may have been unprofitable against the actual ranges of his opponents.
Fedor Holz (the all-time GOAT) missing +EV shoves? Quote
03-23-2018 , 10:22 AM
Yeah, ICMIZER does not know if the player two seats to the left is from Finland and 21 years old, or is a retired businessman from Idaho.
Fedor Holz (the all-time GOAT) missing +EV shoves? Quote
03-23-2018 , 01:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by plexiq
You need to be careful there. Being able to profitably shove any two cards at equilibrium does NOT imply that you can profitably shove any two cards against every possible strategy. These shoves may have been unprofitable against the actual ranges of his opponents.
Ok I was under the mistaken impression that a shove that is +EV at nash equilibrium is unexploitable
Fedor Holz (the all-time GOAT) missing +EV shoves? Quote
03-23-2018 , 01:21 PM
Situations like this are what I am talking about. 5 handed, 10 make the final table, hero is second in chips

BB: 9 bb
SB: 16 bb
BTN: 8 bb
Hero: 25 bb (in co)
UTG: 9 bb

UTG folds.... hero has A2

Situations like this ICMIZER indicates that you can shove pretty loose +EV but he seems to be tighter in spots like these, instead choosing to min raise
Fedor Holz (the all-time GOAT) missing +EV shoves? Quote
03-23-2018 , 01:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CodythePATRIOT
Ok I was under the mistaken impression that a shove that is +EV at nash equilibrium is unexploitable
Nash is unexploitable (i.e at worst EV0).

Pushing may be EV+, but min-raising may be more EV+.
Even folding could be more EV+ if there are players up front likely to get it in against each other.

Especially if you are significantly better than the other players it may be best to give up some minor EV preflop to get a bigger edge postflop.

Last edited by Zamadhi; 03-23-2018 at 01:35 PM.
Fedor Holz (the all-time GOAT) missing +EV shoves? Quote
03-23-2018 , 02:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zamadhi
Nash is unexploitable (i.e at worst EV0).

Pushing may be EV+, but min-raising may be more EV+.
Even folding could be more EV+ if there are players up front likely to get it in against each other.

Especially if you are significantly better than the other players it may be best to give up some minor EV preflop to get a bigger edge postflop.
Thanks for the clarification.
Fedor Holz (the all-time GOAT) missing +EV shoves? Quote
03-23-2018 , 02:31 PM
Actually could we expand on this a bit farther... so I am doing ICM calcs in ICMIZER and I am hitting the find equilibrium button. From there it says that the equilibirum play is to push any two cards and that villains strategy should be to call 5.4%. Does this mean that shoving any two cards is at worst 0 EV? When villian expands his call range the EV of shoving becomes less as he expands, does this mean that the equilibrium ranges do not come into play anymore?
Fedor Holz (the all-time GOAT) missing +EV shoves? Quote
03-23-2018 , 02:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CodythePATRIOT
Actually could we expand on this a bit farther... so I am doing ICM calcs in ICMIZER and I am hitting the find equilibrium button. From there it says that the equilibirum play is to push any two cards and that villains strategy should be to call 5.4%. Does this mean that shoving any two cards is at worst 0 EV?
No, it just means that villains can't improve their EV by changing their strategy. Playing 5.4% is the best they can do against a 100% push in your example. However, with ICM it's perfectly possible for them to make mistakes that also damage BU's EV.

e.g. Villain can not gain anything by calling e.g. 10% instead of equilibrium 5.4%, but he can make plenty of BU's equilibrium pushes unprofitable by doing so.
Fedor Holz (the all-time GOAT) missing +EV shoves? Quote
03-23-2018 , 03:07 PM
^The EV then goes to the player(s) who folded (just to clarify).
The more overly loose our opponents are, the more incentive for us to simply fold/nutmine our way into the money.
Fedor Holz (the all-time GOAT) missing +EV shoves? Quote
03-23-2018 , 03:52 PM
Most everyone calls too wide in heavy ICM spots. If you shove 100% according to equilibrium but a fish snaps you off with K4o what happens is you both lose a ton of $EV that is distributed to all the other players not involved in the hand.

Only shove equilibrium if you are sure the other guy is also following equilibrium play. Otherwise dial it back and pass on marginally "profitable" plays. Any equilibrium solution assumes rational agents that follow the best strategy for their own gain. If there are more than 2 players involved in a game then the irrational actor can cause other players to also lose EV. That's the problem with multiplayer equilibriums.
Fedor Holz (the all-time GOAT) missing +EV shoves? Quote
03-30-2018 , 09:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CodythePATRIOT
Situations like this are what I am talking about. 5 handed, 10 make the final table, hero is second in chips

BB: 9 bb
SB: 16 bb
BTN: 8 bb
Hero: 25 bb (in co)
UTG: 9 bb

UTG folds.... hero has A2

Situations like this ICMIZER indicates that you can shove pretty loose +EV but he seems to be tighter in spots like these, instead choosing to min raise
Someone with his skill/edge generally won't want to risk a lot of chips shoving A2s here and potentially running into a big hand . He can minraise / decide with these stacks . Also he will have strong hands which he prefers to minraise rather than shove so having the ace blocker here is ideal.
Generally icm shoves are preferable when you are in a vulnerable situation where it's easy to be taken advantage of but that's obviously not the case here . There's plenty of hands he can r/c and he covers everyone so they won't be looking to exploit his minraise open by 3bet shoving wide (sb potentially could if he thought Fedor was opening way too wide but really with 3 x 9bb stacks as his other opponents it's kind of suicidal)
Fedor Holz (the all-time GOAT) missing +EV shoves? Quote

      
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