Here is the spot. 109$ MTT on Pokerstars, just made ITM. Villain is Unknown.

Hero(50bb) opens to 2.3bb on BTN with KhQs, BB(90bb) calls.

Flop: AdTh6h (pot 7bb)

BB checks, hero bets 4.8bb, BB raises to 14bb, Hero?

I will write later what I did and my reasoning, but hope to hear unbiased opinions first.

Fold

I’m sure it’s a call in GTO.

I think with your stack depth jam is better than a call. You only have just over a potsized bet after the call and your playability isn't that great as you're basically hoping to hit a heart or jack. Specifically with a heart you're hoping villain checks and you can jam for villain to fold.

I think overall a fold is better here. If the A was suited with the board then I'd like jam better.

Oh and also I am not sure I would cbet this hand. It has fine playability and with T6 on the board you have plenty of lower gutter balls to use as bluffs. You also have plenty of heart draws.

Certaibly not saying this is never a cbet with this hand but I think the majority of the time you should be checking with it.

Based on the bet amounts, hero needs showdown equity of only 27% to make a +EV call. He has that even if villain is playing a top 5% hand, {88+,AJs+, KQs, AKo}. The equity realization isn’t too bad IMO.

If hero jams, he needs about 43% equity for +EV, which he gets if villain’s raising range is top 30% assuming villain will always call hero’s jam. A tighter villain raising range could be acceptable if V wlll sometimes fold to hero’s jam.

Note this is “old-school” EV analysis with results that might not comport with current GTO strategy. Also, since OP didn’t specify any tournament factors other than ITM, stack sizes and prize distribution may affect the decision.

No way in hell you can fold with the Kh. Even if he is value heavy the turn will shift equities enough of the time to force to him to slow down and allow you to realize equity.

He'd have to be the biggest nit of all nits for this to ever be a fold. Your cbet and sizing is good as long as it's not a 100% thing.

Basically this, but re-raising also seems possible. I think folding is out of the question, in theory at least.

Thanks everyone for answers.
Here is what happened. I called, turn is 3s, he shoves and I folded. Funny thing is I analyzed pretty much exact spot just couple days ago, but with deeper stacks. I don't have solver, I construct my ranges just with paper, pen and equilab. So, on this board I bet big with Kh gutshots with intention to call a raise. However, stack sizes made it much nastier than I wished. Thanks for replies, you made me feel better about my call. I need to go back and adjust my ranges for shallower stacks though.

I don't think this range is realistic for a c/r from villain, but maybe you just meant to illustrate how easy it is for us to have 27% equity here? I mean it seems like you just cherry picked that range to make a point but I don't think it really supports your argument since we unblock the under pairs that we have decent equity against and block the top parts of the range that have us crushed.

In reality I think we mostly unblock the hands that have us crushed besides for heart draws containg the Kh. I would think villain's range is something like 66, AT, A6, T6s, Axhh, occasional slow played AK/AQ, maybe some heart draws, occasional gutters to the T6 straight with out a heart, and ocasional AT gutters without a heart.

I am also not sure realizing equity would be that easy here since I am assuming the 27% would be for 2 streets since that is normally how equity is computed and we only see the river on very specific cards which we only see like maybe 18/44 times and even then we may not be able to continue if our opponent bets into us. Which is fine we can fold I am just saying I don't think realizing all of your equity will be that easy here.


I am confused is that 43% equity including the fold equity we produce?

I haven't really run the numbers but we'd be jamming like 36 into 28 is. So we would need villain to fold more than 36/(36+28) = . 56 so 1-.56 = .44 so 44% of the time.

Let's go with my range to see if jamming is ok with fold equity.

66 - 3 combos
AA - 1 combo (likely over estimate given pre)
TT - 1 combo (likely overestimate given pre)
AT - 9 combos
A6 - 9 combos
Axhh - 9 combos (likely over estimate given pre)
AK/AQ - 4 combos (likely over estimate given pre)


Now that's 36 combos of clear value for the c/r. We have a little over 16% equity vs that range. Little better than I thought so flop is probably a call as we add in bluffs.

So let's say villain intentionally chose that bet sizing so that he is balancing those 36 combos as 100% value, meaning he needs to add in enough bluffs to give us 27% equity.

X/(36+X)=.27
X = .27*36/.73
X = 13.3

So let's say villain chooses 13 combos which isn't quite enough but that's fine we're just playing with some numbers to get an idea about jamming.

Let's say villain will fold 2 of the AK/AQ combos to the jam and all of the bluffs so villain will fold 15/49 hands (30.6%).

Pot is 14 + 4.8 + 7 before we jam. What equity do we need when called to make it a profitable jam?

0 = 25.8*.306 + (.eq*100-(1-eq)*45.2)

0 = 7.8948 + 145.2*eq - 45.2

37.3052/145.2 = Eq

.2569 = eq

So when we have 25% equity or more when we get called then it's a +EV jam. Given the range I provided above we do not have that equity when called so yea, not a good jam looking at the numbers.

Also we have roughly 29% equity vs that range with 13 bluff combos so a call will certainly be profitable.

I still think it's contingent on villain slowing down on the turn like he should on cards good for our range so we can more often show down or manuever turn but overall I am willing to admit the jam is probably wrong and the fold is definitely wrong.

So overall I was just generally wrong on this one haha. You live and you learn.



Agree with this.

A. Yes it was simply to show that even a very tight V range didn't require a very high equity to call

B. The 43% equity for break-even assumes villain always calls a shove which I calculated to be 43, coincidentally. If villain would sometimes fold, the required equity is lower.