Quote:
Originally Posted by rpqlej
Almost everybody said that calling a push is just a matter of EV>=0 and we dont have to take into account the amount invested in the pot, for example:
50bb stack effective, BTN open raises 3bb and BB 3bet 10bb, BTN 4bets 50bb.
Lets suppose that BB 3bet range is: 99+,AQs and btn 4bet range is: TT+,AQs+,AQo+
Equity required for BB calling: 4/(4+6.05) = 39.8
That means that 99+ are clear calls while AQs is a fold (equity AQs: 37.81)
The EV value of calling AQs is -2
Now, the doubt: If i fold AQs my overall result in the hand will be -1000bb/100hands, but if i call my overall result will be -200bb/100hands.
Why not call even when it is a -EV call?
If you would lose money overall in a hand by both folding and by calling, but you would lose less by calling than you would by folding, then you should call.
However, in this specific case, your math is wrong and folding actually loses less than calling.
Big blind has already put in 10 big blinds, so if he folds now, then at the end of the hand he has 40 big blinds. Therefore, on the hand overall he lost 10 big blinds (50 - 40 = 10). This is -1,000bb/100 hands.
If big blind calls, then the pot will be 100.5 big blinds and he has 37.81% equity, so he gets back 38 big blinds from the pot (100.5 * .3781 = 38). Therefore, on the hand overall he lost 12 big blinds (50 - 38 = 12). This is -1,200bb/100 hands.
Either way big blind loses chips overall on the hand, but he loses less by folding.
Instead of doing the above calculations most people just ignore previous action and set folding to be equal to 0:
Fold = 0
Call = (100.5 * 37.81%) - 40 = -2. In the foregoing: 100.5 is the pot size if big blind calls; 37.81% is big blind's equity; and 40 is the amount big blind has to call.
0 > -2, so fold is better than call.
Last edited by Lego05; 08-16-2018 at 08:17 PM.