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EV >=0 or overall result in the hand? EV >=0 or overall result in the hand?

08-16-2018 , 03:56 AM
Almost everybody said that calling a push is just a matter of EV>=0 and we dont have to take into account the amount invested in the pot, for example:
50bb stack effective, BTN open raises 3bb and BB 3bet 10bb, BTN 4bets 50bb.
Lets suppose that BB 3bet range is: 99+,AQs and btn 4bet range is: TT+,AQs+,AQo+
Equity required for BB calling: 4/(4+6.05) = 39.8
That means that 99+ are clear calls while AQs is a fold (equity AQs: 37.81)
The EV value of calling AQs is -2
Now, the doubt: If i fold AQs my overall result in the hand will be -1000bb/100hands, but if i call my overall result will be -200bb/100hands.

Why not call even when it is a -EV call?
EV >=0 or overall result in the hand? Quote
08-16-2018 , 05:37 AM
EV is usually calculated in comparison to folding. This keeps things simple and any action with EV>0 is better than folding, simply by definition.

If you calculate the EV in comparison to the beginning of the hand then it becomes more complicated, that's why this method is rarely used. If you calculate EV like that then yes: Some actions will lose chips overall in the hand and therefore have negative EV when calculated like that, but will still be better than folding.
EV >=0 or overall result in the hand? Quote
08-16-2018 , 06:36 AM
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EV >=0 or overall result in the hand? Quote
08-16-2018 , 07:52 AM
Of course you have to include the pot size and previous actions especially in these "do we call a shove?" spots. Often we have already put in a big chunk of our stack and can call off light (compared to calling an open jam) for that reason.

And when shoving it's also important to realize sometimes we pick up 30BB or w/e uncontested when our opponent folds.

Don't know who gave you the idea the pot size was irrelevant....
EV >=0 or overall result in the hand? Quote
08-16-2018 , 08:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rpqlej
Now, the doubt: If i fold AQs my overall result in the hand will be -1000bb/100hands, but if i call my overall result will be (.3781*100-50)*100= -1219bb/100hands.

Why not call even when it is a -EV call?
fyp
EV >=0 or overall result in the hand? Quote
08-16-2018 , 08:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rpqlej
Almost everybody said that calling a push is just a matter of EV>=0 and we dont have to take into account the amount invested in the pot, for example:
50bb stack effective, BTN open raises 3bb and BB 3bet 10bb, BTN 4bets 50bb.
Lets suppose that BB 3bet range is: 99+,AQs and btn 4bet range is: TT+,AQs+,AQo+
Equity required for BB calling: 4/(4+6.05) = 39.8
That means that 99+ are clear calls while AQs is a fold (equity AQs: 37.81)
The EV value of calling AQs is -2
Now, the doubt: If i fold AQs my overall result in the hand will be -1000bb/100hands, but if i call my overall result will be -200bb/100hands.

Why not call even when it is a -EV call?

If you would lose money overall in a hand by both folding and by calling, but you would lose less by calling than you would by folding, then you should call.

However, in this specific case, your math is wrong and folding actually loses less than calling.



Big blind has already put in 10 big blinds, so if he folds now, then at the end of the hand he has 40 big blinds. Therefore, on the hand overall he lost 10 big blinds (50 - 40 = 10). This is -1,000bb/100 hands.

If big blind calls, then the pot will be 100.5 big blinds and he has 37.81% equity, so he gets back 38 big blinds from the pot (100.5 * .3781 = 38). Therefore, on the hand overall he lost 12 big blinds (50 - 38 = 12). This is -1,200bb/100 hands.

Either way big blind loses chips overall on the hand, but he loses less by folding.



Instead of doing the above calculations most people just ignore previous action and set folding to be equal to 0:

Fold = 0

Call = (100.5 * 37.81%) - 40 = -2. In the foregoing: 100.5 is the pot size if big blind calls; 37.81% is big blind's equity; and 40 is the amount big blind has to call.

0 > -2, so fold is better than call.

Last edited by Lego05; 08-16-2018 at 08:17 PM.
EV >=0 or overall result in the hand? Quote
08-18-2018 , 11:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
Of course you have to include the pot size and previous actions especially in these "do we call a shove?" spots. Often we have already put in a big chunk of our stack and can call off light (compared to calling an open jam) for that reason.

And when shoving it's also important to realize sometimes we pick up 30BB or w/e uncontested when our opponent folds.

Don't know who gave you the idea the pot size was irrelevant....
To add to this:

The money in the pot was invested with hands that supposedly have good equity, thus our range after building a pot is inherently profitable; if our range isn't inherently profitable due to our previous actions, that would mean that we screwed up somewhere earlier in the hand.
EV >=0 or overall result in the hand? Quote

      
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