Hi guys i have a question that could probably interest some of you.

I was watching with power equilab the percentage of equity realization OOP with pocket pair. I was doing my normal review after session and i was checking a hand where i decide to flat pocket 99 in SB against a MP open.

I'm talking about 6max cash game.

Why is 99 one of the few hands that has an equity realization of 98% compared to its raw equity, better than TT which realizes only 92% and better also of JJ and QQ that realize respectively 94 and 97%. 22-88 lose a lot in terms of the realization of OOP equity. How come this?

RAW EQUITY



EQUITY REALIZATION OOP

How does the program estimate equity realization or the play factor?

i don't know

I don’t know how you can evaluate equity realization without data or making some heroic assumptions. A player doesn’t realize his showdown equity if he folds winning hands more often than his opponent makes such a mistake.

Thus, ER is very player/situation specific. For example, last night at the Main Event WSOP, Richard Seymour folded a pair of tens when he was a 60/40 favorite against a double gut-shot. If that hand went into his ER database it would mean the ten pair for Seymour has realized equity less than showdown equity, at least for that type of game situation. But, another player may not have folded in a similar situation so a ten pair for him would have higher RE than for Seymour.

From the above, I would think that Power Equilab used a large database to provide ER factors but somehow I doubt that is the case.

I'm sure it runs simulations or solves a toy game, just like other GTO calculators. It looks like you're running the range vs another range, so I'm going to guess that that's your answer. Equity realization is most likely dependent on the range you're playing against, so for some reason 9s realize their equity better than other pocket pairs versus that range. What I'm reasonable confident about, however, is that there is no intuitive answer. It could be a combination of numerous different, tiny factors.

But, if equity realization (ER) depends on folds, how does a simulation or toy game provide results unless it assumes folding occurs. And if it does assume that, what is it based on?

If ER doesn’t depend on folds to a significant extent, then I admit I don’t understand ER.

It does, but the folds aren't player dependent (in the math world). They're based on game theory calculations.

So, for example, the board will come T+ high a certain percentage of the time (which is calculable). Because of the pairs this puts in our opponent's range (and our range), we'll naturally be folding more 99 now.

Okay. I think you are saying that the program uses GTO concepts to determine when folds are called for and then that will define a hand’s realizable equity. The "heroic assumption" will then be that your opponent is playing GTO.

Right--obviously versus passive opponents, we realize more of our equity. And versus maniac opponents, we realize less equity with the bottom of our range and more with the top of our range. But the EQr that any calculator would solve for would be the equity we realize versus the nemesis opponent.

I was trying to determine whether it would be the minimum/maximum we realize, but after thinking about playing versus the maniac, I'm not really sure. So I guess in a manner of speaking, you're right: the exact number solution is based on the assumption we're playing the nemesis.

Those are just very rough estimates and you shouldn't pay too much attention to them. There is no way of knowing what the equity realization of a hand really is without solving the entire game.