I'm seeing this spot in <50bb poker where hero (SB in this case) would have the opportunity to end betting by making a big shove.
It would be rather easy to balance with some top pairs on boards that don't have 2p+ possibilities, like here. Shoving a bottom set would be hugely profitable.
What are the advantages and disadvantages of taking such a line?
- With top pair we don't allow villain to realize his (drawing) equity, but we also lose check/call bluff catch opportunity when he misses.
- This leads to no guessing games OTR where we wonder which draw he hit/miss. We drop the option to make calling mistake.
- We turn our positional disadvantage into a gain by shoving
- We lose turn bet/call opportunity if draw would jam
- We could check/shove instead
- If we check, we cap villains range when he bets and allow 2nd pairs / weakest draws to check back and realize equity.
- Top pair may lose value from Jx 2nd pair if he makes a tight fold, but on the other end of the scale, there's so many draws which make our life miserable.
- I think it's easy for average villain to fold too much, but very few villains call too much.
- With 8c9c here we don't care if villain folds his QTo/T9o that he could have stabbed.
- We would end villains chance to make an error in this hand (i.e bluff river too wide). I guess if we shove sets he could make an error calling TP (and this may actually end up in our favor over more simple standard lines)
So all-in-all, what is the value of shoving turn 2.6x pot and taking the pot down either with very good draw or vulnerable TP+?
I'm just thinking that picking up the pot has to be very +EV and if we can limit the spots where we can make errors, that's awesome as well.
iPoker - £4 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
SB: £213.20 (VPIP: 27.17, PFR: 19.50, 3Bet Preflop: 8.55, Hands: 5,041)
BB: £200.00 (VPIP: 36.76, PFR: 26.47, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 70)
Hero (BTN): £200.00
SB posts SB £2.00,
BB posts BB £4.00
Pre Flop: (pot: £6.00) Hero has 4
J
fold,
SB raises to £12.00,
BB calls £8.00
Flop: (£24.00, 2 players) K
5
J
SB bets £20.00,
BB calls £20.00
Turn: (£64.00, 2 players) 7
SB bets £44.00,
BB calls £44.00
River: (£152.00, 2 players) 7
SB bets £137.20,
BB calls £124.00
SB shows 8
9
(One Pair, Sevens)
(Pre 35%, Flop 41%, Turn 36%)
BB shows 8
K
(Two Pair, Kings and Sevens)
(Pre 65%, Flop 59%, Turn 64%)
BB wins £396.00
Last edited by Fishtankz; 02-14-2018 at 04:28 PM.