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Ending the hand with overbet OTT Ending the hand with overbet OTT

02-14-2018 , 04:20 PM
I'm seeing this spot in <50bb poker where hero (SB in this case) would have the opportunity to end betting by making a big shove.
It would be rather easy to balance with some top pairs on boards that don't have 2p+ possibilities, like here. Shoving a bottom set would be hugely profitable.

What are the advantages and disadvantages of taking such a line?

- With top pair we don't allow villain to realize his (drawing) equity, but we also lose check/call bluff catch opportunity when he misses.
- This leads to no guessing games OTR where we wonder which draw he hit/miss. We drop the option to make calling mistake.
- We turn our positional disadvantage into a gain by shoving
- We lose turn bet/call opportunity if draw would jam
- We could check/shove instead
- If we check, we cap villains range when he bets and allow 2nd pairs / weakest draws to check back and realize equity.
- Top pair may lose value from Jx 2nd pair if he makes a tight fold, but on the other end of the scale, there's so many draws which make our life miserable.
- I think it's easy for average villain to fold too much, but very few villains call too much.
- With 8c9c here we don't care if villain folds his QTo/T9o that he could have stabbed.
- We would end villains chance to make an error in this hand (i.e bluff river too wide). I guess if we shove sets he could make an error calling TP (and this may actually end up in our favor over more simple standard lines)

So all-in-all, what is the value of shoving turn 2.6x pot and taking the pot down either with very good draw or vulnerable TP+?
I'm just thinking that picking up the pot has to be very +EV and if we can limit the spots where we can make errors, that's awesome as well.

iPoker - £4 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: £213.20 (VPIP: 27.17, PFR: 19.50, 3Bet Preflop: 8.55, Hands: 5,041)
BB: £200.00 (VPIP: 36.76, PFR: 26.47, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 70)
Hero (BTN): £200.00

SB posts SB £2.00, BB posts BB £4.00

Pre Flop: (pot: £6.00) Hero has 4 J

fold, SB raises to £12.00, BB calls £8.00

Flop: (£24.00, 2 players) K 5 J
SB bets £20.00, BB calls £20.00

Turn: (£64.00, 2 players) 7
SB bets £44.00, BB calls £44.00

River: (£152.00, 2 players) 7
SB bets £137.20, BB calls £124.00

SB shows 8 9 (One Pair, Sevens)
(Pre 35%, Flop 41%, Turn 36%)
BB shows 8 K (Two Pair, Kings and Sevens)
(Pre 65%, Flop 59%, Turn 64%)
BB wins £396.00

Last edited by Fishtankz; 02-14-2018 at 04:28 PM.
Ending the hand with overbet OTT Quote
02-15-2018 , 06:51 AM
This is a play that is extremely common when OOP on wet boards. Just as a general rule strong + vulnerable hand = bet very big or check raise. Although your example of 2.6x pot is a bit extreme and you start to value own yourself if you shove top pairs for that much. You'd rather want to check raise at that SPR and start shoving at around 1.5x.

In your example I also prefer the check raise just from an exploitative pov. In optimal play BB should tread very carefully because the threat of SB x/r is extreme, but in reality people tend to bet weak pairs and weak draws too much when checked to.
Ending the hand with overbet OTT Quote
02-23-2018 , 10:13 AM
YeH this is a good move OOP with strong vulnerable hands on wet boards

Have to consider that practically as well this is hard to balance. Are you just going to have a super polarised range? Maybe you want some thin value bets OTT too.

Also it will be better to jam turn with bad draws imo. Good draws can bet/call or XC or x/r
Ending the hand with overbet OTT Quote

      
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