Effectiveness of blockers vs. a mixed strategy? - Poker Theory

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Effectiveness of blockers vs. a mixed strategy?

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08-01-2017 , 02:36 PM

PathsOfGlory

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 21

Had a disagreement with a friend on this and was wondering if anyone could clarify. We would like to know how to calculate (if possible) how to estimate effectiveness of blockers vs. a mixed strategy.

Here is an example of what I mean:

We have KQo vs villain in a 3b pot. We assume villains range on this theoretical river as (TT-AA). We expect villain to only have 30% of their QQ-AA (70% are 4bet by villain). If villain is randomly choosing 30% of these combos, how do we determine combos blocked? I assume it's less than the 3 combos of KK and 3 combos of QQ that would be blocked by a non-mixed strategy.

Last edited by PathsOfGlory; 08-01-2017 at 02:45 PM.

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08-01-2017 , 03:34 PM

UpDog

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 441

I hope I'm understanding your scenario correctly. So Villain in this river spot would have 30 percent of QQ-AA and we block QQ and KK. So each combo of queens and kings would represent 5 percent and you can deduct combos from there. Only exception is like, if you know villains mixed strategy depends on what suits he plays. Then you could maybe possibly take whole hands out of the picture. Like if you know he'll always be flatting with the Qd or something 4 betting rest, etc etc..

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08-01-2017 , 03:40 PM

PathsOfGlory

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 21

Quote:

Originally Posted by UpDog

30% as in 70% of villain's QQ-AA would not
be here even if we held 23o so 0.3 x 18 possible dealt combos = ~5-6 total QQ-AA combos with no blockrts held. I'm also assuming complete randomness in how villain decides call v 4b (no specific cards). How do you get the 5% you mentioned?

Last edited by PathsOfGlory; 08-01-2017 at 04:01 PM.

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08-01-2017 , 10:00 PM

browni3141

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 5,678

6 combos make a pocket pair. This goes down to 3 when we have one blocker, so they show up 3/6 = 1/2 as often. 1/2*.3*6 = .9 combos.

Villain's range looks like this: {TT (6), JJ (6), QQ (.9), KK (.9), AA (1.8)}

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08-02-2017 , 11:27 AM

PathsOfGlory

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 21

Quote:

Originally Posted by browni3141

This is what I was looking for, thanks!

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08-03-2017 , 01:38 PM

au4all

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 2,872

After card removal there are 12 combos of TT/JJ, and 12 combos of QQ+. Since the numbers are equal, 30% of the time he'll have QQ+. You can do this calc in your head.

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