Quote:
Originally Posted by statoverflow
Suppose you're only playing those top 5 hands. You get them only 3% of the time. If you fold when you don't get these 5 hands, you're losing 1/6 BBs per hand at a full ring table. To even break even, you need to win an average of 5.4BBs per hand that you get these cards after rake, which is an absurd rate 25BBs deep.
This should not be a long-term profitable strategy, even if you play more than top 3% of hands and your opponents don't figure out what you're doing. And you should factor in the value of time into your calculations if you have to wait an hour every time you double up.
Thank you for the response and especially for giving me a detailed estimate of 5.4bbs/hr to break even with this strategy, I greatly appreciate it!
(while being very generous on the following estimates)
I would estimate on average I am a 60/40 favorite to win my shoves when I get one caller.
Assuming I win 6 out of 10 hands played and lose the other 4;
(6x50) - (4x50) 300-200=100$
If my opponents fold I steal about 3-12$
minimum of dead money (I will assume that this number stops at 12 to make simplify my mathematics analysis)
So with hands stealing dead money, producing a 0% chance of loss, occurring maybe 1 out of 10 shoves? (again just my rough estimate)?
so.. every 10 hands I play I will profit about 100 + 3-12$.. ---> 103$-112$
to make things simple, 108$ / 10 hands?
~108 divided by 10 = 10.8.. divided by 2 (big blind)
= 5.4bb/hand when up against a single opponent, after rake maybe it reduces to 4.7bb-5bb/hr?
Now what if we factor in the times big stacks intimidate each other when in a multi-way pot with me (50-150$ dead money is a possibility here in best case scenarios)
The times I steal 15+$ of preflop bets and the times I play hands like Aj 99 etc in perfect positions to steal dead money?
6bbs+ per hand seems possible, does it not?
Imagine this (seemingly) frequently occurring preflop action
UTG raises 9 --> followed by 3 callers --> I shove AA for 55$ --> Get one call
this situation gives me ~25$ of risk-free value, does it not?
Please consider that my opponents (3-7am) are sometimes calling with.. anything.. my estimated (average!!) 60/40 odds are probably something more like 65/35 or even slightly better.
I am just starting to study math (Basic algebra levell) so I would love to see where my calculations went wrong, or maybe a corrected version of my poor attempt at a mathematical analysis, any help is greatly appreciated, thanks again statoverflow!