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Old 02-18-2019, 11:51 PM   #1
Lozgod
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Does playing for implied odds negate long term pot odds profit or benefit it?

I think the question is self explanatory but JIC, for instance, a player plays for 100 pots and in those 100 pots 30 of them have 3 to 1 odds on a 4 to 1 win odds and you call every time for implied odds and the other 70% have perfect pot to win odds.

The times you hit you get the pot and remainder of the opponents chips but when you miss you lose the bets and occasional bluff jams for your stack.

I know there is a mathematical equation to determine this with exact figures but overall I think I am asking are implied odds over or undervalued.

Maybe a better question is, is there a point when playing for implied odds without regard to pot odds becomes -EV over a long term?
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Old 02-19-2019, 07:59 AM   #2
just_grindin
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Re: Does playing for implied odds negate long term pot odds profit or benefit it?

Implied odds are always just estimates as you can't predict what cards will come or more importantly how your opponent will react to them.

I wouldn't say that it effects your immediate pot odds but both affect your EV.
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Old 02-19-2019, 11:21 AM   #3
statmanhal
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Re: Does playing for implied odds negate long term pot odds profit or benefit it?

Implied odds provide guidance on whether to call a bet that currently is -EV. Most implied odds estimates that Iíve seen assume the following:

If you hit the desired hand (e.g., a set or flush or straight)

1. You bet and villain will call
2. The bet will be large
3. You will win the hand

These are all optimistic assumptions. Villain will not always call, especially if the last board card pretty much makes your hand known, such as a third or fourth flush card. Villainís stack size may not allow a large bet and your hand may not always win (reverse implied odds).

An implied odds model to account for these possibilities can be formulated. If done, then determining the required implied odds for a specific situation is equivalent to determining the equity or bet size you need for break-even EV. In other words, a proper implied odds calculation helps one to make the right EV decision.
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Old 02-19-2019, 12:19 PM   #4
Lozgod
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Re: Does playing for implied odds negate long term pot odds profit or benefit it?

Ok so say for instance you have someone that has a hard time laying down TPTK then implied odds are definitely +EV in most situations. Thatís an easy one.

But letís say you are at a table with good regs. Over a large sample size you find yourself in that situation more than not (todayís 20nl+ environment online), are you calculating implied odds based on the opponentís stack size or another value?

Iím playing 6max and I know my opponents can lay down a good hand if 3 hearts hit the board and they are bet sizing to eliminate break even pot odds (something I do on draw heavy boards), is there any justification to continue in the hand or is it more profitable giving up?

I try to balance by using fold equity when I miss my draws along with folding when the odds are bad but want to make the call sometimes just to call but I think it is hurting my profit.

So I guess Iím asking what do I want to ask myself when considering implied odds? Is it primarily based on table dynamics?
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Old 02-19-2019, 09:17 PM   #5
ArtyMcFly
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Re: Does playing for implied odds negate long term pot odds profit or benefit it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lozgod View Post
So I guess I’m asking what do I want to ask myself when considering implied odds? Is it primarily based on table dynamics?
It's primarily based on villain's range and his propensity for paying off with the weaker parts of it, and/or for being easily bluffed off the best hand.
Some players give you good implied odds (because, for example, their ranges are strong and they hate folding), but others do not (because they fold hands that should, in theory, pay you off when you suck out).
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Old 02-20-2019, 02:09 PM   #6
just_grindin
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Re: Does playing for implied odds negate long term pot odds profit or benefit it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lozgod View Post
But letís say you are at a table with good regs. Over a large sample size you find yourself in that situation more than not (todayís 20nl+ environment online), are you calculating implied odds based on the opponentís stack size or another value?
If you have stats on the opponent then you can probably look at showdown or folding numbers to give you a better idea. Stacksize will influence it for sure. The more behind the better.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lozgod View Post
Iím playing 6max and I know my opponents can lay down a good hand if 3 hearts hit the board and they are bet sizing to eliminate break even pot odds (something I do on draw heavy boards), is there any justification to continue in the hand or is it more profitable giving up?
This is a good example of not just implied odds but bluffing on outs that improve your range/hurt villain's range.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lozgod View Post
So I guess Iím asking what do I want to ask myself when considering implied odds? Is it primarily based on table dynamics?
I think you are over thinking this just a little bit.

Generally it's a combination of your immediate odds, your history with villain, how much money is behind, reads, if you have any bluff outs if you don't inprove, etc.
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Old 02-20-2019, 06:37 PM   #7
Lozgod
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Re: Does playing for implied odds negate long term pot odds profit or benefit it?

Thanks for the replies. Good stuff.
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Old 02-22-2019, 11:36 PM   #8
getmeoffcompletely
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Re: Does playing for implied odds negate long term pot odds profit or benefit it?

"implied" odds are not really a thing. It's all about equity and a big factor is if you're in position or not. For example OOP you'll almost never see a solver continue with a hand that doesn't have direct equity on the call (and if it does continue the ev will usually be ~0). IP it will happen but that's simply because position itself is worth some amount equity.

What is true is that not all equity is made equal and some equity will have higher ev than other equity. But generally you're not going to call a 20% equity hand when you need 25% to continue and have it be +ev situation.
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