Quote:
Originally Posted by in game
What is the truth behind recreational players losing faster at heads up vs 6 max, could some of the maths posters here maybe confirm the below quote which is from another thread where the standard comment in that thread was that recs do lose faster at hu than 6max, but than this poster explained that it wasn't true with the below reply.
There are a few issues with the calculation:
Win rates don't work that way. You can't just say a 2bb winner wins 2bb in any game from any position relative to the fish and that the fish is the only contributer to everyone's 2bb winrate. It's also difficult to directly compare wr between game formats (i.e. taking someones wr from one game format can't directly tell you what their wr is in another format).
Also the way the calculation was used is confusing. First the poster has 5*(6+2) and I can't decide if that means rake + wr or what because the poster adds another amount for rake on the end which doesn't make any sense to me. So the calculation seems off in some way even as a model estimation.
If I were to model it I would think you could start with looking at negative contributors to your winrate. So that would be composed of a percentage folded preflop forced bets (abbreviated later as FB; e.g. Blinds, antes, kills, straddles, etc) coupled with any -EV plays (which I am intentionally leaving loosely defined here).
So total losses looks something like:
F*(FB) + sum(-EV Plays)
If you look at this you can make some genralizations about 6 max vs hu play:
If F is the frequency you fold a force bet you see more forced bets in hu play so even if your same frequency holds in heads up as it does in 6 max you're likely still losing more money in hu because you are seeing more forced bets.
A simple example. Lets say you play 60 hands. In 6 max that's 10 orbits so you would pay the blinds roughly 10 times. So lets say you fold your small blind 80% of the time and your bb 70% of the time.
That means you will lose (.8*10*.5)+(.7*10*1) = 11 bb just from folding.
Now in heads up you would have played 30sb and 30bb. If you maintained those same frequencies you would end up losing (.8*30*.5)+(.7*30*1) = 12 + 21 = 33bb.
You lose 3 times more playing the same frequency of blinds (ignoring other factors) because you see the blinds much more frequently.
So let's say you adjust and don't fold as frequently. Well if you take the rest of the -EV plays those have to occur at some point in the hand. They are just aggregate of all the -EV plays a person makes. That means you will make these -EV decisions more frequently (because you're calling more and playing more postflop).
So in both scenarios it seems like players have more opportunity to lose money more quickly heads up than in 6 max.
The part I glossed over and may not necessarily be true is that all -EV plays are the same in 6 max vs hu or that players make the same mistakes at both which is why WR are hard to compare between formats.