Two Plus Two Poker Forums defending against 3bets..
 Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read TwoPlusTwo.com

 Notices

 Poker Theory General poker theory

 11-21-2016, 08:23 PM #1 CrimesNCapers enthusiast   Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 56 defending against 3bets.. i.e. HU NL 100bb stacks 1.) Button raises 3bb, BB makes it 9bb 2.) Button raises 3bb, BB makes it 13bb *Assume button raises ~80% of all hands. *Assume BB 3bets ~20% of hands. How often do we need to defend under these 2 scenarios to prevent Button from auto profiting with his 3bet? Looking for the theoretical -- defending ranges and how the math affects it based on both 1) size of 3bet 2) how often facing 3bet. Few more Questions for those in the know -- How could I go about looking deeper into this math? Is there any software out there that is attempting to solve preflop somewhat. Will solvers be able to map out preflop one day? whats stopping them from doing it?
 11-21-2016, 10:56 PM #2 TheGodson veteran     Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Merica! Posts: 2,199 Re: defending against 3bets.. 1) BB risks 8bbs to win 4.5bbs. It needs to succeed 64% of the time. You need to defend 36% to prevent him from auto profiting with air. You should probably 4-bet some too so he doesn't see the flop with weak hands. 2) BB risks 12bb to win 4.5bbs. The ammount to defend this is 27%. Basically the math is: 1 - [Their risk]/[Their risk + Pot size] to get the amount you need to defend.
 11-22-2016, 08:48 AM #3 Bob148 Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: May 2012 Location: takin it to the streets Posts: 10,296 Re: defending against 3bets.. I think making an 0% equity bluff indifferent is a mistake here.
 11-23-2016, 04:59 AM #4 TheGodson veteran     Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Merica! Posts: 2,199 Re: defending against 3bets.. That is true. When you call you allow for your opponent to see flops and hit strong hands. So you'll want to defend a bit wider than minimum defense frequency. I don't know what would be a good amount to add though. 5% maybe? I guess it partially depends on how often you 4-bet.
 11-28-2016, 06:20 PM #5 Donovan old hand   Join Date: Sep 2011 Location: aka Navonod (there's no AKA) Posts: 1,416 Re: defending against 3bets.. the fact that villain can get lucky and hit flops when he is bluffing gives you incentive to defend MORE and to 4 bet some the fact that YOU can get lucky and hit a flop when he is actually value betting means you can call more often than you could if you lost every time you called incorrectly. The fact that equity is not 100 and 0 percent in pre-flop poker makes these spots incredibly complex but my deep intuition is that you'd wanna add a whole lot more than 5% to the required defense if you were dead against his value and he wasn't live with his bluffs. We just have more incentive to play flops as the caller when we are beat AND as 4 bettor to shut his hands out than what the normal defense percents assume. I'm guessing the min defense frequencies are off by a lot and it obv depends tremendously on the stack depths. If no more money goes in post flop then it's likely closer to the math in the first answers.
 11-28-2016, 08:32 PM #6 pucmo grinder   Join Date: Mar 2016 Location: Euro Posts: 670 Re: defending against 3bets.. I might defend with top 15% vs a pot 3-bet here, but in practice up to top 25%. Other than that, my number is top 50% vs a pot 3-bet. 2x pot 3-bet would make it top 33%, or the total amount of money he puts in there vs what is in the pot. The pot odds might add more or less implied hands to these. If I 4-bet, there are some weak hands that I don't fold then.
 11-30-2016, 12:43 AM #7 pechkin adept   Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 729 Re: defending against 3bets.. there is no air preflop, everything got their equity %
 12-04-2016, 02:23 AM #8 gatorlaw journeyman     Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: Ky Posts: 321 Re: defending against 3bets.. *Assume button raises ~80% of all hands. *Assume BB 3bets ~20% of hands. This doesnt really matter for your question. (1) Cant fold more than 66% or he auto profits (2) Cant fold more than 75% or he auto profits. Last edited by gatorlaw; 12-04-2016 at 02:28 AM. Reason: math error
 12-09-2016, 06:30 PM #9 booogeee newbie   Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 14 Re: defending against 3bets.. agreed
12-11-2016, 02:26 AM   #10
I_lose
journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Black Hills of South Dakota
Posts: 221
Re: defending against 3bets..

Quote:
 Originally Posted by TheGodson Basically the math is: 1 - [Their risk]/[Their risk + Pot size] to get the amount you need to defend.
Where did we get this formula (an honest question. I'm trying to understand how MDFs work)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Donovan the fact that villain can get lucky and hit flops when he is bluffing gives you incentive to defend MORE and to 4 bet some the fact that YOU can get lucky and hit a flop when he is actually value betting means you can call more often than you could if you lost every time you called incorrectly. The fact that equity is not 100 and 0 percent in pre-flop poker makes these spots incredibly complex but my deep intuition is that you'd wanna add a whole lot more than 5% to the required defense if you were dead against his value and he wasn't live with his bluffs. We just have more incentive to play flops as the caller when we are beat AND as 4 bettor to shut his hands out than what the normal defense percents assume. I'm guessing the min defense frequencies are off by a lot and it obv depends tremendously on the stack depths. If no more money goes in post flop then it's likely closer to the math in the first answers.
Am I out of line for believing that tournament play, especially late stages, would add even more considerations to this?

Thanks guys.

 12-11-2016, 07:16 AM #11 TheGodson veteran     Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Merica! Posts: 2,199 Re: defending against 3bets.. The formula comes from the bettor's profitability with a 0 equity hand. For an example say the pot is \$10 and you bluff \$5 hoping your opponent folds. Let us pretend that this scenario happens 3 times. The first 2 times the opponent calls and you lose \$5. The last time he folds and you win \$10. He folded twice so you lost \$10 total on the times he called. But on the time he folded you won \$10. If we combine the value of the first two scenarios with the last one we get \$0 total. This is the break even point. Hopefully this helps you better visualize the structure of the following equation. \$5 is the risk amount. \$10 is the amount in the pot. risk/(risk + pot) 5/(5+10) = 5/15 = 1/3. If he folds 1/3 of the time you break even. If he folds more than 1/3 you profit. If he folds less than 1/3 you lose. If he is folding 1/3 of the time then that means the other 2/3 of the time he is calling (defending). That is why 1 subtracts from the equation afterward when we are looking at it from the caller's perspective. There isn't anything magical about MDF and it shouldn't be followed religiously. However, it is a good way to realize when there is a spot your opponent could be betting any hand and make a profit with you folding.
 12-11-2016, 07:37 AM #12 TheGodson veteran     Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Merica! Posts: 2,199 Re: defending against 3bets.. OP was looking for the making sure opponent doesn't auto-profit-line which was why I originally went on the safe side. Also, for some reason my mind shifted over to fullring instead of heads up which does make a difference. For what it is worth, in HU games I sometimes defend as much as 75% of my range to a minimum open. MDF would suggest 50%. So that is 25% more than what MDF suggests. Also for 3x 3-bet pots I defend about 50% of my opening range. Which is more than MDF as well. However, if you are looking to play tight without getting ripped apart then MDF is a good place to start at least. I've seen some players defend a 2x open in the BB with 55% of their range and still do fairly okay. I certainly sit these people expecting to have an edge, but it isn't like I am ripping them apart. It is more of a slow process of withering their stack away.
 04-14-2019, 07:58 PM #13 Manko898 stranger   Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 8 Re: defending against 3bets.. To determine how often to defend while accounting for Villain's equity you need to do an EV calc. Determine the equity of the worst hand in Villain's range. Set EV = O x = %Call And you will then see how much fold equity villain needs to break even with his bluff.

 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Forum Rules
 Forum Jump User Control Panel Private Messages Subscriptions Who's Online Search Forums Forums Home Links to Popular Forums     News, Views, and Gossip     Beginners Questions     Marketplace & Staking     Casino & Cardroom Poker     Internet Poker     NL Strategy Forums     Poker Goals & Challenges     Las Vegas Lifestyle     Sporting Events     Politics     Other Other Topics Two Plus Two     About the Forums     Two Plus Two Magazine Forum     The Best of Two Plus Two Marketplace & Staking     Commercial Marketplace     General Marketplace     Staking - Offering Stakes     Staking         Staking - Offering Stakes         Staking - Seeking Stakes         Staking - Selling Shares - Online         Staking - Selling Shares - Live         Staking Rails         Transaction Feedback & Disputes     Transaction Feedback & Disputes Coaching & Training     Coaching Advice     Cash Game Poker Coach Listings     Tournament/SNG Poker Coach Listings Poker News & Discussion     News, Views, and Gossip     Poker Goals & Challenges     Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance     That's What She Said!     Poker Legislation & PPA Discussion hosted by Rich Muny     Twitch - Watch and Discuss Live Online Poker     Televised Poker General Poker Strategy     Beginners Questions     Books and Publications     Poker Tells/Behavior, hosted by: Zachary Elwood     Poker Theory     Psychology No Limit Hold'em Strategy     Medium-High Stakes PL/NL     Micro-Small Stakes PL/NL     Medium-High Stakes Full Ring     Micro-Small Stakes Full Ring     Heads Up NL     Live Low-stakes NL Limit Texas Hold'em Strategy     Mid-High Stakes Limit     Micro-Small Stakes Limit Tournament Poker Strategy     STT Strategy     Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos     Mid-High Stakes MTT     Small Stakes MTT     MTT Community     Tournament Events Other Poker Strategy     High Stakes PL Omaha     Small Stakes PL Omaha     Omaha/8     Stud     Draw and Other Poker Live Poker     Casino & Cardroom Poker         Venues & Communities         Regional Communities     Venues & Communities     Tournament Events         WPT.com     Home Poker     Cash Strategy     Tournament Strategy Internet Poker     Internet Poker         Global Poker         MPN – Microgaming Poker Network         BetOnline.ag Online Poker     Commercial Software     Software         Commercial Software         Free Software General Gambling     Backgammon Forum hosted by Bill Robertie.     Probability     Sports Betting     Other Gambling Games 2+2 Communities     Other Other Topics         OOTV         Game of Thrones     The Lounge: Discussion+Review     EDF     Las Vegas Lifestyle     BBV4Life         omg omg omg     House of Blogs Sports and Games     Sporting Events         Single-Team Season Threads         Fantasy Sports     Fantasy Sports         Sporting Events     Wrestling     Golf     Chess and Other Board Games     Video Games         League of Legends         Hearthstone     Puzzles and Other Games Other Topics     Politics     Playground: Well Named Loves Social Science     History     Business, Finance, and Investing     Science, Math, and Philosophy     Religion, God, and Theology     Travel     Health and Fitness     Laughs or Links!     Computer Technical Help     Programming

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:07 PM.

 Contact Us - Two Plus Two Publishing LLC - Privacy Statement - Top