That seems right. Thanks.
Did Monkey T1lt get this also?
Do you or he want to PM me your real name?
I don't get why some people didn't realize what I was asking.
I would like to point out that the question becomes a little harder if it involves rakes low enough where the pusher shouldn't push all hands.
If I were to approximate the answer I believe your result means I can say that "if the rake is 20% or higher the pusher can push all his hands in the dark (laying 10-1 odds) and at that 20% figure the other player will call about 15% of the time and win almost 12 of those 15. His worst calling hands are about 60% against a random hand and will win about two thirds against the weakest opposing pushes."
Do you agree with all that?
Assuming you do, do you agree that I can analogize that into saying that a very large stack can push against a small stack of about five buy ins or less in a tournament where there are a few tiny microstacks and only one player needs to be eliminated to make the bubble? I come to that conclusion thusly:
100 players buy in 1000 in a nlh tournament with only one big blind and no antes. Ten players make the bubble prize of 2000. After which they shoot for the first prize of 80,000. No intermediate prizes. If you make the bubble with 5000 your EV is 2000 plus 5% of 80,000 or about 6000. (In real life slightly more). If you make the bubble with 10,000 your EV is about 2000 plus 8000 or about 10,000. So if the blind is about 500 and you are in it and a big stack moves you all in, you are risking 6000 EV to win another 4000 EV. If he moves in in the dark you need a 60% chance against a random hand to call.
Since you need a 60% chance to call, the situation is essentially the same as the rake problem. So the big stack dark pusher can indeed do his evil against a thinking opponent who is trying to maximize their EV when that opponents stack is up to about 5 buy ins.