Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Poker Theory General poker theory

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-21-2019, 05:23 AM   #1
CodythePATRIOT
journeyman
 
CodythePATRIOT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 283
Is call vs 3-bet destined to be a losing proposition?

I am combing through my data and over a pretty big sample (165k hands), I am winning at approximately 6bb at my low stakes games.

The one glaring stop where I see to bleed money is the call vs 3-bet stat. In case the stat is not clear, this is anytime I defend a 3-bet either OOP or IP. I am trying to dig through this and see how to improve it, but it seems that it is almost destined to be a losing stat. What is achievable in this regard?

I also combed through some data and I am losing when I defend the BTN vs the BB at around -700bb/100. I am defending a tight range and I ran an aggregate analysis of the equity (I play on a site with all hole cards revealed) and the average pot odds I am being offered are 2:1 (needing to realize 33% of equity to breakeven). The aggregate equity I had when I defended was about 40%. So even with rake of 5%, I should be more than fine to call here. Especially given that I am defending in position.

I just wondered what is realistic in these spots and if I should temper my expectations when I look at this stat.

Last edited by CodythePATRIOT; 03-21-2019 at 05:28 AM.
CodythePATRIOT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2019, 08:15 AM   #2
ohly
Pooh-Bah
 
ohly's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Berlin
Posts: 3,677
Re: Is call vs 3-bet destined to be a losing proposition?

can you exclude the possibility that you are doing something wrong in your analysis? maybe filter for the stronger parts of your ranges and see how they are doing. also keep in mind that you only have to beat the ev of folding which is like -200bb/100 for a minraise.

sorry if this is obvious to you, but i don't know how experienced you are with data analysis.
ohly is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2019, 09:31 AM   #3
Brokenstars
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Brokenstars's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Check out my PGC!!!
Posts: 12,281
Re: Is call vs 3-bet destined to be a losing proposition?

Yes
Brokenstars is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2019, 01:35 PM   #4
Lezaleas
newbie
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
Posts: 40
Re: Is call vs 3-bet destined to be a losing proposition?

First of all, just because we have 40% eq doesn't mean we can call a 40% pot odds bet, or whatever we need after rake. It's a huge mistake to think that we can.
The population at low stakes tends to have very obvious flaws. They 3bet and open the BTN with ranges way tighter than they should. We can't respond to those bets with some kind of MDF because they are simply not bluffing enough. So maybe look at what you are getting 3bet and stolen by. They should be opening around 40% of the button and 3betting around 10% of hands before I go into defense mode. Any less and I'm exploitative folding every time they do that
Lezaleas is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2019, 01:38 PM   #5
ArtyMcFly
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
ArtyMcFly's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Enchantment Under the Sea
Posts: 11,950
Re: Is call vs 3-bet destined to be a losing proposition?

Calling a 3-bet is destined to be a losing proposition, yes. But your aim when you press CALL is to finish the hand with a stack size that is better than it would be if you just folded to the 3-bet.
i.e. If you open for 2.5x, then when you call a 3-bet, you want your average loss rate to be -250bb/100 or better. If it's -700bb/100 over a large sample, you're calling too much, or playing badly in 3-bet pots.

Here's a snippet from one of my databases and it shows that, overall, I could probably call even more 3-bets, as I only lost 1.11bb per hand in this sample:



I may well have a problem in the SB, however, as I was losing quite badly (-5.4bb per hand) when I called 3-bets in SBvBB over a tiny sample. If your number is -700 for BTN, you almost certainly have issues that need addressing. Make sure you use the EVbb/100 stat to remove some of the runbad/variance. Note that you really need a much bigger database than mine or yours to come to some firm conclusions. (My numbers are from 125,000 hands, which is nothing really).
ArtyMcFly is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2019, 02:15 PM   #6
Brokenstars
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Brokenstars's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Check out my PGC!!!
Posts: 12,281
Re: Is call vs 3-bet destined to be a losing proposition?

It should be noted that the standard deviation in this filtered situation-- calling 3bets --- is going to be very high and as a result looking at your winrates in sample sizes like you are and trying to come up with conclusions is very misleading.
Brokenstars is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2019, 06:32 PM   #7
browni3141
veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: South Florida
Posts: 3,209
Re: Is call vs 3-bet destined to be a losing proposition?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brokenstars View Post
It should be noted that the standard deviation in this filtered situation-- calling 3bets --- is going to be very high and as a result looking at your winrates in sample sizes like you are and trying to come up with conclusions is very misleading.
This is the most important thing to consider, IMO. It's very likely that your analysis means nothing, OP. It doesn't mean that you shouldn't look for leaks in 3-bet pots. In fact 3-bet pots BU vs. blinds happen so much that it's well worth studying. However, your sample size is likely not significant.
browni3141 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2019, 06:50 PM   #8
Lozgod
adept
 
Lozgod's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 881
Re: Is call vs 3-bet destined to be a losing proposition?

I wish I had PT4. I was thinking this same thing pretty recently.

If I RFI with a high suited connector which is going to miss a lot then get 3 bet and call I am probably putting myself in a bad spot without strong post flop play. Same thing with lower and middling pairs looking to set mine. I do that 8 times to win once and then I need the villain in that one instance to offer the reverse implied odds I need. Otherwise I am just winning a pot basically. Then account for villain folding maybe 1 out of 3 of the remaining times they missed the flop or turn with overcards.
Lozgod is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2019, 08:03 PM   #9
Brokenstars
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Brokenstars's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Check out my PGC!!!
Posts: 12,281
Re: Is call vs 3-bet destined to be a losing proposition?

I'll tell you that you should fold significantly more than you currently do OOP to 3bets as pretty much every single person's database I look at calls too much
Brokenstars is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:13 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online