ELI5: I've had something that's always bothered me about calculating odds. I've noticed that odds are always calculated assuming that all of the outs are still available, rather than making statistical assumptions... an example is listed below:
Hold'em: 2 suited cards in pocket, two matching suit on board. Odds are calculated that all 9 are still available rather than making the assumption that 1/4 cards that cannot become part of your hand (turn/river, burn cards, other players' cards).
In a four handed game you know there are 8 cards in other players' hands and let's say it's a bet post turn... then you also know there are 2 burn cards that could be your matching suit. Why don't you take 2.25 from the number of outs... so calculating with 6.75 outs instead of 9? It seems like it would make sense to do so as it is a more conservative and statistically accurate calculation.
Can anyone help?