Quote:
Originally Posted by just_grindin
One thing you aren't considering from what I can tell at a galnce is when both hj and co call jointly.
I can fix this
So the situation when they both call would only occure when HJ calls, thus we need to include these calculations in this part of the formula: 0.1*(+(0.29*(57.8bb+165bb))-(0.71*167bb))=-5.39bb
I estimate that CO will call a shove when HJ already called 30% of the time
versus both CO (the change of his range when HJ called is considered) and HJ ranges Hero has 18% equity
also, when CO calls, money loss does not change, but to money won we need to add the rest of CO stack, that would be +71.2bb
therefore this part of the formula would look like this:
0.1*(0.7*(0.29*(57.8bb+165bb)-0.71*167bb)+0.3*(0.18*(57.8bb+165bb+71.2bb)-0.82*167bb))=-6.29bb
Quote:
Originally Posted by just_grindin
Also their calling decisions aren't necessarily independent in other ways. For example HJ folding means CO can call with all of his hands that are at or above the equity threshold. If HJ calls some of those hands could possibly no longer have the correct equity and pot odds to call.
When I was constructing CO calling range I didn't account for the probability of HJ calling, so that range doesn not change (as if HJ is already folded), when HJ calls I made CO calling range tighter and included new estimations in the necessary part of the formula above
Quote:
Originally Posted by statmanhal
the occurrence probability of Hero vs HJ and Button has to include the probability that Cutoff has folded.
this taken into account here, I added 0.7* and 0.3* according to my estimates in the second part of the formula
Quote:
Originally Posted by statmanhal
you have hero vs. hijack as a confrontation. But Button has to be in every confrontation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by statmanhal
In addition, the win probability of Hero vs. two opponents is not specified. In general, it is not equal to the product of the individual win probabilities. If you have estimates of opponent ranges, use a poker equity calculator to get the multiway win probabilities.
So in every confrontation we need to include BTN range, thus we need to change second and third parts of the formula:
0.1*(0.7*(0.29*(57.8bb+165bb)-0.71*167bb)+0.3*(0.18*(57.8bb+165bb+71.2bb)-0.82*167bb))=-6.29bb
and
0.5*(+(0.32*(57.8bb+71.2bb))-(0.68*79.2bb))=-6.28bb
versus HJ range when he calls and BTN range Hero has 22% equity
versus HJ range when he calls, CO range when he calls after HJ calls and BTN range Hero has 15% equity
therefore second part of the formula would look like this:
0.1*(0.7*(0.22*(57.8bb+165bb)-0.78*167bb)+0.3*(0.15*(57.8bb+165bb+71.2bb)-0.85*167bb))=-8.62bb
versus CO calling range and BTN range Hero has 24% equity
therefore third part of the formula would look like this:
0.5*(0.24*(57.8bb+71.2bb)-0.76*79.2bb)=-14.61bb
So when we put it all together we get this:
(0.47*57.8bb)-(0.53*43,4bb)+0.1*(0.7*(0.22*(57.8bb+165bb)-0.78*167bb)+0.3*(0.15*(57.8bb+165bb+71.2bb)-0.85*167bb))+0.5*(0.24*(57.8bb+71.2bb)-0.76*79.2bb)=4.16bb-8.62bb-14.61bb=-19.07bb
Is EV formula correct now?