Quote:
Originally Posted by Theagent77
If we flip the problem over, if we had a strong value hand an a board with a lot of missed draws, we want to make a big bet because Villain might think he still has the pot odds to call with a pair. This makes sense to me
the bold is the crux of the matter. without value hands there is no bet. with no bet there is no bet size. thus betsize is dependent on having value hands that maximize profit at that particular betsize.
if my opponent has chosen a turn strategy that leaves his range full breakeven river bluffcatchers, while my river range has all different kinds of hands, then I'm actually in a position to bet a specific, yet different amount with each individual hand combination in my value range. this would maximize my ev with every combo, and i could presumably have bluffs from the bottom of my range to make my opponent have to call with bluffcatchers. Unfortunately for the bettor, the opponent gets to have slowplays in range, as well as draws that improve. slowplays and draws both have the effect of giving our opponent the option to raise, which can turn your river value hand into a bluffcatcher, which comes with liability, in an instant.
The liability of a bluffcatcher comes in two forms:
a) sunk cost of hand strength regression
b) future cost of playing vs players that don't bluff frequently enough to make calling an 0ev bluffcatcher profitable.
even if your opponent bluffs the river too much, you're not actually making profit on the hand as a whole after calling a river raise with a bluffcatcher that would be 0ev in equilibrium. you only slightly profit vs over bluffers unless they absolutely play backwards. but these days almost everyone knows you need value hands to bet.
this is why i consider these factors when choosing betsize on the river:
my hand strength relative to my opponents range and how i should play given these ranges.
how my opponent should play his range
how my opponent will actually play his range.
if the same, how to best extract value from that range
if different, how to exploit that range.