Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Poker Theory General poker theory

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-17-2018, 03:56 PM   #1
Nepeeme2008
adept
 
Nepeeme2008's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: In position
Posts: 709
Bluffing frequency

I'm an old geezer, long time rec player with terrible math skills.
Don't know if this question maybe belongs in beginner section but here goes.

If I bluff pot on the river, what percentage does villain need to fold, in order for it to be a profitable play?

Let's say for example, pot is 100 and I bluff bet 100. The size of the pot.
Nepeeme2008 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-17-2018, 04:11 PM   #2
ArtyMcFly
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
ArtyMcFly's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Enchantment Under the Sea
Posts: 11,929
Re: Bluffing frequency

To break even with an airball bluff, you need villain to have a folding frequency of bet/(pot+bet)

So if you bet 100 into a pot of 100, you need a folding frequency of 100/(100+100) = 1/2 = 50%.
ArtyMcFly is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-17-2018, 07:15 PM   #3
statmanhal
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 4,381
Re: Bluffing frequency

Since it is rare that a hand has 0 equity (airball bluff), I copied the following table from the draft book "Hold ‘em Poker by the Numbers" to show the required fold equity for various hero hand equities ranging from 0% to 40%. Blank entries signify that the situation has positive EV without the need for fold equity.


statmanhal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-17-2018, 09:06 PM   #4
Bob148
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Bob148's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: takin it to the streets
Posts: 10,368
Re: Bluffing frequency

I’ve never seen that. Thanks.
Bob148 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-18-2018, 04:01 AM   #5
PokerPhilosopher
adept
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 799
Re: Bluffing frequency

Keep in mind that your hand's equity only matters if your opponent responds by either folding or calling. If they continue by raising, then your hand's equity doesn't matter and you can just assume you're bluffing with complete air.
PokerPhilosopher is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-18-2018, 09:52 AM   #6
Bob148
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Bob148's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: takin it to the streets
Posts: 10,368
Re: Bluffing frequency

I think this is very useful for 15 to 45bb poker, particularly tourney poker because of the frequency of overbetting on the flop and turn.

With more than 45bb in play, I would think that the bluffs would come from the inherently profitable triangle of blanks at the bottom left. These hands can bet fractions of the pot for profit and the stronger blanks can stand up to a raise. This is an important range construction crossroads:
.................../.................................\
bluff with strong draws.............bluff with weak draws

I have a loose theory that the (weak draw bluffs) portion of my bluffing range are the only hands in my range that would fold to a minimum raise. This is why I think that low equity semibluffs are, or should be, low frequency actions in big bet games.* This strengthens your strategy vs a minraise.

This is why I think total polarization is a mistake for preflop 3+ betting. What are you going to do with a range that is (33% bluffs) when facing a minraise that's offering you at least 3:1?

*In limit games, there are many more available strong hands, which allows you to bluff more (combos) but less (frequently). In many instances its correct to bet 100%; this is usually because of either a scary board, or a low opponent raising frequency, or both.
Bob148 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-18-2018, 02:41 PM   #7
Fishing
centurion
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: California
Posts: 126
Re: Bluffing frequency

I am very interested in your book. Do you get into things like Minimum Defense Frequency? Most of what is out there is not useful at a table. They generally ignore that MDF must take into account the preflop ranges, not just simple math. It also must include made hands and strong draws.

I am working on software that simulates play using only external files for decisions. Info at peakholdem.com. Might be useful to you.

What I am working on now is board analysis. Will Tipton has suggested that there are 103 boards that represent all combinations. I am struggling with how to reduce board analysis to something truly representative but is simple enough to be useful at the table. Have you done anything on that?
Fishing is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-20-2018, 07:13 AM   #8
TheGodson
veteran
 
TheGodson's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Merica!
Posts: 2,216
Diamond Re: Bluffing frequency

Quote:
Originally Posted by statmanhal View Post
Since it is rare that a hand has 0 equity (airball bluff), I copied the following table from the draft book "Hold ‘em Poker by the Numbers" to show the required fold equity for various hero hand equities ranging from 0% to 40%. Blank entries signify that the situation has positive EV without the need for fold equity.


Maybe I'm confused, but isn't it better EV to be checking down with any hand less than 50% equity when 0% hands are getting folded. How does a half pot bet with 30% equity make more profit than checking?
TheGodson is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-20-2018, 07:52 AM   #9
Kelvis
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 7,960
Re: Bluffing frequency

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGodson View Post
Maybe I'm confused, but isn't it better EV to be checking down with any hand less than 50% equity when 0% hands are getting folded. How does a half pot bet with 30% equity make more profit than checking?
The chart doesn't say whether it is more profitable to check or bet. It just says when it is profitable to bet.
Kelvis is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-20-2018, 10:04 AM   #10
statmanhal
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 4,381
Re: Bluffing frequency

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGodson View Post
Maybe I'm confused, but isn't it better EV to be checking down with any hand less than 50% equity when 0% hands are getting folded. How does a half pot bet with 30% equity make more profit than checking?

Kelvis
"The chart doesn't say whether it is more profitable to check or bet. It just says when it is profitable to bet"
+1

The phrase “when 0% hands are getting folded” implies that a no-fold is given, which is not the case. The chart shows the required fold equity to make a bet profitable given card equity against villain’s calling range.

This range will normally be narrower than villain’s check-check range. So, for example, if hero checks and villain also checks with a range for which hero has 40% equity (>30%), then you can show that if villain folds 1/3 of the time facing a half-pot bet , hero EV = 0.40, same as the check-check option. This assumes no raise and the hand is subsequently checked down if not a river bet.

EVchk = 0.40*1 = 0.4

EVbet = 0.33*1 + 0.67*(0.30*(1+2*0.5)-0.5) = 0.4
statmanhal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-21-2018, 02:17 AM   #11
TheGodson
veteran
 
TheGodson's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Merica!
Posts: 2,216
Re: Bluffing frequency

Okay, that makes sense. I guess, in a way, it sort of compares itself to folding since that is 0 EV.

Is there a problem with using this logic instead:
If I make a pot sized bet that is getting called with 25% equity then it can be considered risking only 3/4 of the pot since 25% of what I'm betting will be won back. Is this too much of a simplification?
TheGodson is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-21-2018, 07:47 AM   #12
Kelvis
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 7,960
Re: Bluffing frequency

According to that logic if you have 50% equity you risk 50% of the bet. In reality you're not risking any of the bet because you have 50% over the bet + call.
Kelvis is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-22-2018, 01:07 AM   #13
TheGodson
veteran
 
TheGodson's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Merica!
Posts: 2,216
Re: Bluffing frequency

No, it would be risking 25% of the bet.
TheGodson is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:50 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online