Two Plus Two Poker Forums Bluffing frequency
 Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read TwoPlusTwo.com

 Notices The Theory of Poker Applied to No-Limit now available For those of you here in Las Vegas, The Theory of Poker Applied to No-Limit by David Sklansky is now available at Gambler’s General Store/ GAMBLER'S BOOK CLUB in downtown Las Vegas. Their address is 727 S Main St, Las Vegas, NV 89101 and their phone number is (702) 382-9903. We also have this title available in several special poker book promotions directly from Two Plus Two Publishing. For more info or to ask questions check out this thread in the books and publications forum: David Sklansky Answers Questions About The Theory of Poker Applied to No Limit.

 Poker Theory General poker theory

 08-17-2018, 03:56 PM #1 Nepeeme2008 adept     Join Date: Mar 2017 Location: In position Posts: 765 Bluffing frequency I'm an old geezer, long time rec player with terrible math skills. Don't know if this question maybe belongs in beginner section but here goes. If I bluff pot on the river, what percentage does villain need to fold, in order for it to be a profitable play? Let's say for example, pot is 100 and I bluff bet 100. The size of the pot.
 08-17-2018, 04:11 PM #2 ArtyMcFly Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Dec 2014 Location: Enchantment Under the Sea Posts: 11,950 Re: Bluffing frequency To break even with an airball bluff, you need villain to have a folding frequency of bet/(pot+bet) So if you bet 100 into a pot of 100, you need a folding frequency of 100/(100+100) = 1/2 = 50%.
 08-17-2018, 07:15 PM #3 statmanhal Pooh-Bah   Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,412 Re: Bluffing frequency Since it is rare that a hand has 0 equity (airball bluff), I copied the following table from the draft book "Hold ‘em Poker by the Numbers" to show the required fold equity for various hero hand equities ranging from 0% to 40%. Blank entries signify that the situation has positive EV without the need for fold equity.
 08-17-2018, 09:06 PM #4 Bob148 Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: May 2012 Location: takin it to the streets Posts: 10,407 Re: Bluffing frequency I’ve never seen that. Thanks.
 08-18-2018, 04:01 AM #5 PokerPhilosopher adept   Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 829 Re: Bluffing frequency Keep in mind that your hand's equity only matters if your opponent responds by either folding or calling. If they continue by raising, then your hand's equity doesn't matter and you can just assume you're bluffing with complete air.
 08-18-2018, 09:52 AM #6 Bob148 Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: May 2012 Location: takin it to the streets Posts: 10,407 Re: Bluffing frequency I think this is very useful for 15 to 45bb poker, particularly tourney poker because of the frequency of overbetting on the flop and turn. With more than 45bb in play, I would think that the bluffs would come from the inherently profitable triangle of blanks at the bottom left. These hands can bet fractions of the pot for profit and the stronger blanks can stand up to a raise. This is an important range construction crossroads: .................../.................................\ bluff with strong draws.............bluff with weak draws I have a loose theory that the (weak draw bluffs) portion of my bluffing range are the only hands in my range that would fold to a minimum raise. This is why I think that low equity semibluffs are, or should be, low frequency actions in big bet games.* This strengthens your strategy vs a minraise. This is why I think total polarization is a mistake for preflop 3+ betting. What are you going to do with a range that is (33% bluffs) when facing a minraise that's offering you at least 3:1? *In limit games, there are many more available strong hands, which allows you to bluff more (combos) but less (frequently). In many instances its correct to bet 100%; this is usually because of either a scary board, or a low opponent raising frequency, or both.
 08-18-2018, 02:41 PM #7 Fishing centurion   Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: California Posts: 126 Re: Bluffing frequency I am very interested in your book. Do you get into things like Minimum Defense Frequency? Most of what is out there is not useful at a table. They generally ignore that MDF must take into account the preflop ranges, not just simple math. It also must include made hands and strong draws. I am working on software that simulates play using only external files for decisions. Info at peakholdem.com. Might be useful to you. What I am working on now is board analysis. Will Tipton has suggested that there are 103 boards that represent all combinations. I am struggling with how to reduce board analysis to something truly representative but is simple enough to be useful at the table. Have you done anything on that?
08-20-2018, 07:13 AM   #8
TheGodson
veteran

Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Merica!
Posts: 2,227
Re: Bluffing frequency

Quote:
 Originally Posted by statmanhal Since it is rare that a hand has 0 equity (airball bluff), I copied the following table from the draft book "Hold ‘em Poker by the Numbers" to show the required fold equity for various hero hand equities ranging from 0% to 40%. Blank entries signify that the situation has positive EV without the need for fold equity.
Maybe I'm confused, but isn't it better EV to be checking down with any hand less than 50% equity when 0% hands are getting folded. How does a half pot bet with 30% equity make more profit than checking?

08-20-2018, 07:52 AM   #9
Kelvis
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 8,070
Re: Bluffing frequency

Quote:
 Originally Posted by TheGodson Maybe I'm confused, but isn't it better EV to be checking down with any hand less than 50% equity when 0% hands are getting folded. How does a half pot bet with 30% equity make more profit than checking?
The chart doesn't say whether it is more profitable to check or bet. It just says when it is profitable to bet.

08-20-2018, 10:04 AM   #10
statmanhal
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 4,412
Re: Bluffing frequency

Quote:
 Originally Posted by TheGodson Maybe I'm confused, but isn't it better EV to be checking down with any hand less than 50% equity when 0% hands are getting folded. How does a half pot bet with 30% equity make more profit than checking?

Kelvis
"The chart doesn't say whether it is more profitable to check or bet. It just says when it is profitable to bet"
+1

The phrase “when 0% hands are getting folded” implies that a no-fold is given, which is not the case. The chart shows the required fold equity to make a bet profitable given card equity against villain’s calling range.

This range will normally be narrower than villain’s check-check range. So, for example, if hero checks and villain also checks with a range for which hero has 40% equity (>30%), then you can show that if villain folds 1/3 of the time facing a half-pot bet , hero EV = 0.40, same as the check-check option. This assumes no raise and the hand is subsequently checked down if not a river bet.

EVchk = 0.40*1 = 0.4

EVbet = 0.33*1 + 0.67*(0.30*(1+2*0.5)-0.5) = 0.4

 08-21-2018, 02:17 AM #11 TheGodson veteran     Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Merica! Posts: 2,227 Re: Bluffing frequency Okay, that makes sense. I guess, in a way, it sort of compares itself to folding since that is 0 EV. Is there a problem with using this logic instead: If I make a pot sized bet that is getting called with 25% equity then it can be considered risking only 3/4 of the pot since 25% of what I'm betting will be won back. Is this too much of a simplification?
 08-21-2018, 07:47 AM #12 Kelvis Carpal \'Tunnel   Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 8,070 Re: Bluffing frequency According to that logic if you have 50% equity you risk 50% of the bet. In reality you're not risking any of the bet because you have 50% over the bet + call.
 08-22-2018, 01:07 AM #13 TheGodson veteran     Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Merica! Posts: 2,227 Re: Bluffing frequency No, it would be risking 25% of the bet.

 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Forum Rules
 Forum Jump User Control Panel Private Messages Subscriptions Who's Online Search Forums Forums Home Links to Popular Forums     News, Views, and Gossip     Beginners Questions     Marketplace & Staking     Casino & Cardroom Poker     Internet Poker     NL Strategy Forums     Poker Goals & Challenges     Las Vegas Lifestyle     Sporting Events     Other Other Topics Two Plus Two     About the Forums     Two Plus Two Magazine Forum     The Best of Two Plus Two Marketplace & Staking     Commercial Marketplace     General Marketplace     Staking - Offering Stakes     Staking         Staking - Offering Stakes         Staking - Seeking Stakes         Staking - Selling Shares - Online         Staking - Selling Shares - Live         Staking Rails         Transaction Feedback & Disputes     Transaction Feedback & Disputes Coaching & Training     Coaching Advice     Cash Game Poker Coach Listings     Tournament/SNG Poker Coach Listings Poker News & Discussion     News, Views, and Gossip     Poker Goals & Challenges     Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance     That's What She Said!     Poker Legislation & PPA Discussion hosted by Rich Muny     Twitch - Watch and Discuss Live Online Poker     Televised Poker General Poker Strategy     Beginners Questions     Books and Publications     Poker Tells/Behavior, hosted by: Zachary Elwood     Poker Theory     Psychology No Limit Hold'em Strategy     Medium-High Stakes PL/NL     Micro-Small Stakes PL/NL     Medium-High Stakes Full Ring     Micro-Small Stakes Full Ring     Heads Up NL     Live Low-stakes NL Limit Texas Hold'em Strategy     Mid-High Stakes Limit     Micro-Small Stakes Limit Tournament Poker Strategy     STT Strategy     Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos     Mid-High Stakes MTT     Small Stakes MTT     MTT Community     Tournament Events Other Poker Strategy     High Stakes PL Omaha     Small Stakes PL Omaha     Omaha/8     Stud     Draw and Other Poker Live Poker     Casino & Cardroom Poker         Venues & Communities         Regional Communities     Venues & Communities     Tournament Events         WPT.com     Home Poker     Cash Strategy     Tournament Strategy Internet Poker     Internet Poker         Global Poker         MPN – Microgaming Poker Network         BetOnline.ag Online Poker     Commercial Software     Software         Commercial Software         Free Software General Gambling     Backgammon Forum hosted by Bill Robertie.     Probability     Sports Betting     Other Gambling Games 2+2 Communities     Other Other Topics         OOTV         Game of Thrones     The Lounge: Discussion+Review     EDF     Las Vegas Lifestyle     BBV4Life         omg omg omg     House of Blogs Sports and Games     Sporting Events         Single-Team Season Threads         Fantasy Sports     Fantasy Sports         Sporting Events     Wrestling     Golf     Chess and Other Board Games     Video Games         League of Legends         Hearthstone     Puzzles and Other Games Other Topics     Politics and Society     Playground: Well Named Loves Social Science     History     Business, Finance, and Investing     Science, Math, and Philosophy     Religion, God, and Theology     Travel     Health and Fitness     Laughs or Links!     Computer Technical Help     Programming

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:17 PM.

 Contact Us - Two Plus Two Publishing LLC - Privacy Statement - Top