Quote:
Originally Posted by YouAreAwesome
Reread my post. I said we lose our 1/3pot bet every time vs a value hand but we win against their bluffs. If we check however, we either lose to their bluffs by folding 100% or lose more to their value hands by calling 100%.
If we blocker bet 1/3pot and they play an exploitable strat of folding all bluffs and calling/raising all value we win 1/3 of the pot. In other words, we win against the 1/3 of their range that is a bluff.
We are making a worse hand fold, but it is +ev for us to do this which answers the OP. I'm unsure if this concept would apply in a GTO situation though. Villain should balance the value raises with the bluffs and we should include some strong hands in our 1/3 blocker bet. But this is not what we are trying to solve is it? We are simply trying to find an example where leading to make a worse hand fold is +ev.
I am pretty sure I read it correctly but I'll read it again. Yeah, I still think you have not given an example satisfying OP's criteria.
We are looking for an example where
A) Betting can get no worse hand to call
B) Betting can get no better hand to fold
C) Betting is still optimal
Equivalently,
A) The only hands that fold to a bet are worse hands.
B) The only hands that call a bet are better hands.
C) Betting is still optimal
Note I mean optimal as in maximally +EV not GTO.
OP didn't ask if it can be profitable to bet getting worse hands to fold. I followed your example and it looks logical. But you're assuming villain folds his value hands half the time. If he folds his value hands half the time, then our hand CAN get better hands to fold and criterion A fails. Recall OP's question was specifically
"In NLHE, can it ever actually be correct to make a river bet that can't get worse to call or better to fold? (Which only gets worse to fold and better to call)."
The "only" in the parenthetical part is critical. If our bet gets any better hands to fold as in your example then it is outside the scope of the question.
Perhaps I have misunderstood your example. If so, please elaborate as to where I am missing something.