Quote:
Originally Posted by kvnd
They say you can 3 bet 21.xx% of hands sb vs. button. This struck me as a crazy high amount of hands. I'm wondering what our plan is for this when our opponent does no fold. Clearly, we aren't going to be flatting 4 bets.
I think it's crazy too. I'd guess that the game theory optimal frequency for up to 200NL is nearer 15%, and that you
should be flatting 4-bets with a few combos.
But if the BTN doesn't defend appropriately vs the 3-bets, having a super-high 3-bet % in the SB is +EV. As such, it's an "exploitative" adaptation, that works until villain learns to exploit it.
FWIW, Snowie doesn't value suited connectors as highly as Upswing does in that spot. At 100bb deep 100NL vs a 3x by button, it goes with 55+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, AJo+, KQo, QJo (which looks almost identical to an UTG opening range), but some of the worst combos in that range are mixed (sometimes just folds). Even if you 3-bet all those hands 100% of the time, it's only 15.7%.
At higher stakes (with lower rake), the 3-bet range can be wider.
P.S. Snowie thinks that if it's faced by a pot-sized 4-bet after it 3-bets 15%, then the 5-bet range is mostly TT+/AK with a little bit of AQs. If you were 3-betting 21%, and villain widened his 4-bet range, then you'd possibly start 5-betting 99 and AJs or AQo.