Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Poker Theory General poker theory

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 02-20-2019, 02:12 AM   #1
Ari88
newbie
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Finland
Posts: 44
is this argument true? MDF/indifference involved

Pot is 1 on the river, hero bets 1(full pot) and has 2 value bets for every bluff hand as he should here.

Villain has only bluffcatchers that can beat heros bluff hands but loses to value hands.

MDF dictates 50% calling frequency agains pot size bet.

Villain calls 50% of the time randomly.

Does both players break even here?

if villain calls everytime, villain breaks even but hero wins?
if villain folds everytime, villain breaks even but hero wins?
if villain calls 50% of the time, both break even?

Lets have some game theory conversation TIA
Ari88 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-20-2019, 04:53 AM   #2
plexiq
old hand
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Vienna
Posts: 1,943
Re: is this argument true? MDF/indifference involved

Villain changing his calling frequency with bluff-catchers does not change the EVs, as long as hero keeps playing 2:1 value:bluff. Each call is exactly 0EV compared to folding, so calling 0%, 50% or 100% always results in exactly the same EV for both players.
plexiq is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-20-2019, 08:13 AM   #3
Bob148
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Bob148's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: takin it to the streets
Posts: 10,255
Re: is this argument true? MDF/indifference involved

Quote:
if villain calls 50% of the time, both break even?
the bluffcatcher essentially gets the call back(0ev), but the bettor earns pot+bet (+1 pot ev)
Bob148 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-20-2019, 08:56 AM   #4
Ari88
newbie
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Finland
Posts: 44
Re: is this argument true? MDF/indifference involved

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob148 View Post
the bluffcatcher essentially gets the call back(0ev), but the bettor earns pot+bet (+1 pot ev)
well what would be the right frequency of calls to make hero break even? can we calculate this someway? because there must be a response to combat heros strategy right? somekind of equilibrium?
Ari88 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-20-2019, 09:02 AM   #5
Bob148
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Bob148's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: takin it to the streets
Posts: 10,255
Re: is this argument true? MDF/indifference involved

Quote:
well what would be the right frequency of calls to make hero break even? can we calculate this someway? because there must be a response to combat heros strategy right? somekind of equilibrium?
Only way to gain ev for the caller is to bring more strong hands to the river.
Bob148 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-20-2019, 03:06 PM   #6
ArtyMcFly
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
ArtyMcFly's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Enchantment Under the Sea
Posts: 11,721
Re: is this argument true? MDF/indifference involved

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ari88 View Post
well what would be the right frequency of calls to make hero break even? can we calculate this someway? because there must be a response to combat heros strategy right? some kind of equilibrium?
At equilibrium in this 'toy game', when one player bets pot with a correctly balanced polarized range, and the other calls with pure bluff-catchers, the bettor's overall EV is pot, and the caller's EV is zero.
By calling at the optimal frequency, the caller can make the bettor's bluffs break even. He can't stop the value-bets from printing money.
Indeed, by calling at a certain frequency, the caller prevents the bettor from altering his strategy. i.e. If the guy with bluff-catchers stopped calling completely, the guy with the polarized range could forget about balancing his range and start betting ALL his bluffs. At equilibrium, he can only bet some of his air, because his bluffs will get snapped off some of the time.
ArtyMcFly is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-20-2019, 04:03 PM   #7
Ari88
newbie
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Finland
Posts: 44
Re: is this argument true? MDF/indifference involved

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly View Post
At equilibrium in this 'toy game', when one player bets pot with a correctly balanced polarized range, and the other calls with pure bluff-catchers, the bettor's overall EV is pot, and the caller's EV is zero.
By calling at the optimal frequency, the caller can make the bettor's bluffs break even. He can't stop the value-bets from printing money.
Indeed, by calling at a certain frequency, the caller prevents the bettor from altering his strategy. i.e. If the guy with bluff-catchers stopped calling completely, the guy with the polarized range could forget about balancing his range and start betting ALL his bluffs. At equilibrium, he can only bet some of his air, because his bluffs will get snapped off some of the time.
great answer! this was pretty much what i was thinking of, i just couldnt figure out with my math if caller can make hero ev0 but now i understand its only for his bluffs. so villain calling randomly 50% in this case would be pretty good strategy even tho it wont change the outcome for him.
Ari88 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-21-2019, 04:15 AM   #8
plexiq
old hand
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Vienna
Posts: 1,943
Re: is this argument true? MDF/indifference involved

Quote:
so villain calling randomly 50% in this case would be pretty good strategy even tho it wont change the outcome for him.
While changing the callers strategy won't change EVs as long as the bettor remains with the 2:1 value bluff ratio, calling with a frequency other than 50% will make the caller exploitable to adjustments by the bettor.

Calling <50%: The bettor can increase his EV by adding more bluffs.
Calling >50%: The bettor can increase his EV by removing bluffs.
plexiq is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2019, 03:00 PM   #9
pucmo
grinder
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Euro
Posts: 665
Re: is this argument true? MDF/indifference involved

The overall theory for one bluff and two values makes it okay to call any number of times. But it is another thing how to figure out the opponent's range.

If one has only bluff-catchers, often that is not the case.

Calling more or less than half the time here is not in theory nor in practice exploitable but possibly later.

One calls or not depending on the situation, and if there is a GTO bet, it is just the same what one does, and if the GTO player then adjusts, you can exploit him but if he thinks you will do so.

One tries to win money, so in practice, everyone is exploitable, or are you going to call (or fold to) that bet as the GTO suggests? Probably not, after you get more experience.
pucmo is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:35 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online