Can someone confirm/berate my calculation of 4 bet shoving 100bb in cash games blind vs blind / bu vs blinds. Lets say we got aggro villian who 3 bets 25% in the big blind vs small blind open. Hero holds QJs, opens to 3x, villian 3 bets to 9bb and hero shoves for 100bb.

profit when folded: 3bb+9bb=12bb
loss when called:-100bb -(200bb x 0.354)= -29bb (0.354 is our equity of the pot vs 5.9% calling range (88+ AQo+ Ajs+))

If villian 3 bet 25% of the time it means: 5.9/25=0.24= villians folds roughly 3/4 times

this means that we profit (12 x 3)-29=36-29=7bb per shoving hand.

I've seen the pros do it with 77-TT, Ako but never seen them go as far as A2s QJs etc even though according to my maths those hands would make a profit shoving also.

Opinions?

Your calc is wrong because using your approximation of 1/4 times he calls and the equity you have when called you can see from this quick trial if you played 4 hands

hand 1 he folds you win 12bb
hand 2 he folds you win 12bb
hand 3 he folds you win 12bb
hand 4 he calls and you lose 29bb

but you then say this means you make 12x3 = 36 - 29 = 7 bb PER HAND
but actually you can see above if you played 4 hands you would have made 7bb TOTAL profit or 1.75bb / hand which is a lot thinner margin

Another couple of things to think about

a) blockers . Do you block his 3bet bluffing range or his 3bet calling range ? This will change the frequency of his 3b/f : 3b/c also the equity you have when called will change slightly

b) A much bigger consideration is that this is in a vacuum but he can counter your strategy by calling off wider or 3betting tighter and this can quickly push your shove to being significantly -EV . So if you have stats on this player then he will have stats on you and once he sees you 4bet shoving QJ and A2 then he may well adjust quite quickly to that , right ?

Not saying the shove is intrinsically bad and it may well show a profit against certain opponents but it's probably a long way from any sort of equilibrium and thus could easily be exploited

Ty for your input. I totally missed the fact I had to devide the profit over the amount of hands the spot is calculated over.

To answer a), QJ affects blocks both his calling range (AQ, JJ-QQ) and his linear value range(Hands he wont call an all in with( J8s+ Q8s+ Ajo etc)). However because assuming we play against super aggro, thinking of QJ as blockers doesn't play much of a roll when we face a 25%+ 3 betting range verus something like 12%.

b) If id construct a more balanced shoving range lets say 4.5% (99-66,A5s-A4s,QJs,AQo+). The situation of him 3 betting and calling my 4 bet shove will only occur
roughly every 1 out of 1000 sb vs bb hands. This I calculated with 0.45 x 0.25 x 0.045 x 0.2=0.001 .
0.45 is chance of me opening a hand in the sb
0.25 is the frequency we assumed he's gonna 3 bet
0.045(4.5%) is the frequency im gonna shove with
0.2 is the frequency he's gonna call when I shove.

Also with a more balanced shoving strat and assuming aggrotard wont adapt,(even though as proved above, it will take some time to figure the strategy out) I calculated a profit of around 5.2bb per hand.

Another thing to consider is that it may be profitable to do this, but is it more profitable to take a different line?

Or to put it another way is this the most profitable option you have available?

There's not an easy way to answer that but something to still consider.

Well if you have a database with enough hands(probably need over 1mill hands) where you call 3 bet oop with 44-88 A2s-A5s etc you can probably find out what your winrate is. Of course this depends on the skill level both on your and villians side.

I agree mining is about the only way, but even without that you could make some rough estimates about calling.

Classic HU strategy is to shove pocket pairs if villain 3-bets >20%.
It's profitable but very high variance.
It also depends on what your opponent calls you with and what was his initial 3-bet range. If your opponent 3-bets more polarized then he will fold most of that range to shove.

Exploitative approach is to think about is there a better (more profitable) way to play the hand. Shoving preflop (100bb) is something very extreme and you need good sample before you do it.
Only a handful of regs in the pool I would consider the strat against, even then it's very extreme.

Didnt Otb use this strategy recently in the 25 50 games?

Also if we want to use this strategy. .it might be better to use it with
1. Tightening up our open range
2. Opening to a bigger size so that the 3 bet is bigger as well and we win more from our 4 bet shove and risk less to win that bigger amount as well

Yea OtB recently started to do it alot for what i've seen. I've seen him 4 bet shove as far as QJo (100bb) HU vs bajskorven who 3 bets alot.

I agree that a bigger open like 3x or even 3.5x on the button would benefit 4 bet shoving but I dont think you should tighten your range because you use the 4 bet shove as a tool to force them to not 3bet you as much because they lose alot of value if they 3 bet a merged range and get shoved on.