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 11-14-2017, 03:20 PM #1 poker-hero journeyman   Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 373 2nd nuts vs River Check raise : need maths plz cashgame nl500 6max : UTG & MP fold CO raise KcQd BTN & SB fold BB call Flop : Qc9c5s (pot = 1) BB check CO bet 0.5 BB call 0.5 Turn : 7c (pot = 2) BB check CO bet 1 BB call 1 River : 2c (pot = 4) BB check CO bet 2 BB raise 4x2=8 CO? So the pot size is 14 and I have to call 6. I hold 2nd nuts. Is there a mathematical way to solve that? I am not looking for an exploitative logic based on reads, Villain's profile, etc. Let's say we face a balanced strategy : I'd like to know if there's a mathematical solution.
 11-14-2017, 04:51 PM #2 ZKesic grinder     Join Date: Jan 2014 Location: Slovenia Posts: 455 Re: 2nd nuts vs River Check raise : need maths plz If you're holding the second nuts here at 500NL, call xD on a serious note: 6/(14+6)= 30% is the amount that we should be winning when we call, for our call to be 0 EV. Therefore that's how much villain should be bluffing (when he's counting in the effect of our bluffcatcher's blockers). If we include the 5% rake for example, it would be 6/(20*0.95)= 31,6%. If we include the fact that we beat/block some of his value range here, our call becomes +EV. The exact math depends on how often he has Kc/Qd in his value range, or Qd in his bluffing range, but this should be one of our best bluff catchers.
 11-14-2017, 04:58 PM #3 ZKesic grinder     Join Date: Jan 2014 Location: Slovenia Posts: 455 Re: 2nd nuts vs River Check raise : need maths plz We should be bluffing river here 2/8 = 25% of the time. When we're check raised by the GTO strategy, we should be folding 8/14 = 57% of the time to be balanced.
11-14-2017, 05:39 PM   #4
poker-hero
journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 373
Re: 2nd nuts vs River Check raise : need maths plz

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ZKesic We should be bluffing river here 2/8 = 25% of the time.
where do you get this from? I don't understand the idea here. You are talking about Villain, right? or Hero?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ZKesic When we're check raised by the GTO strategy, we should be folding 8/14 = 57% of the time to be balanced.
I don't get this one either sorry.

11-14-2017, 05:43 PM   #5
poker-hero
journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 373
Re: 2nd nuts vs River Check raise : need maths plz

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ZKesic 6/(14+6)= 30% is the amount that we should be winning when we call, for our call to be 0 EV. Therefore that's how much villain should be bluffing (when he's counting in the effect of our bluffcatcher's blockers). If we include the 5% rake for example, it would be 6/(20*0.95)= 31,6%.
OK, so Villain should do this move with a range including 30% (or 31.6%) of bluffs, right?

11-14-2017, 06:06 PM   #6
ZKesic
grinder

Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Slovenia
Posts: 455
Re: 2nd nuts vs River Check raise : need maths plz

Quote:
 Originally Posted by poker-hero OK, so Villain should do this move with a range including 30% (or 31.6%) of bluffs, right?
yes

Quote:
 Originally Posted by poker-hero ty ZKesic for your answers where do you get this from? I don't understand the idea here. You are talking about Villain, right? or Hero?
When we bet 2 into a pot of 4 on the river, opponent has to call 2 to get 6 right? So our bluff:value ratio should be 2:6. Therefore, we should be bluffing 2/(6+2) = 25%, for opponent's blufcatchers to be breakeven.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by poker-hero I don't get this one either sorry.
When opponent check raises river to 8, he's risking 8 to get a pot of 6.
Meaning, his bluff has to work 8/(8+6)= 57% of the time.
That's why we're folding 57%. If we folded more, his bluffs would be +EV, if we folded less, he shouldn't ever be bluffing.

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