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1050$ progr. bounty Thursday Thrill calculations 1050$ progr. bounty Thursday Thrill calculations

08-11-2017 , 05:33 AM
Hi some fellow grinders and I were discussing a hand in the Thursday Thrill yesterday.

I figured I should recalculate the hand based on both player shoving ranges, but I'm trying to wrap my head around the right way to calculate...

Hence, reaction should just focus on the calculation, not opponent's ranges.

Hand: https://www.boomplayer.com/24862135_05ADF60721

Blinds: 125/250 ante 50. UTG has 250$ bounty, UTG+1 has 325$ bounty
Startstack is 25.000
Hero holds: J J

The ranges we put both villains on are:
UTG: 88+,AJ+,KQo,KQs
UTG+1: 99+,AQ+

Towards opponent's ranges we have 3 scenario's:
1. Hero wins whole pot (27.525) + both bounties ($575)*
2. UTG wins pot, Hero wins side pot (10.158) +$325* bounty
3. UTG+1 wins pot, Hero loses his call (18554)
We decided to ignore the possibility of a caller behind Hero, since most AK,KK,AA combo's are in villain's ranges.

The odds of each scenario are (given by Equilab):
1. Scenario 1 odds: 35.64%
2. Scenario 2 odds: 28.83%
3. Scenario 3 odds: 35.53%
Now, the value of each chip should be 750$ (without bounty and fee) / 25000 = 0.03$ per chip

So, given by each scenario, we calculated EV as follows:
EV1: 35.64% * 0.03 * 27.525(pot) + 575(bounty) = $1400,75
EV2: 28.83% * 0.03 * 10.158 (side pot) + $325(bounty) = $629,74
EV3: 35.53% * 0.03 * -18.554(call) = $-556,62
So, EV= $1400,75 + $629,74 - $556,62 = $1473,87???


*Or is it half the bounty. We win the entire bounty if we finish 1st right?
1050$ progr. bounty Thursday Thrill calculations Quote

      
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