Quote:
Originally Posted by Alpha13
I don't get it guys. Not folding KK preflop in shallow games is taken here dogmatically yet I could not see a more -EV play at my table (again against 50bb+ stacks) What is the rationale behind it? More combos of AK and Queens than Aces? If so then I feel that reasoning is terrible and I'm going to play the 400 based on my own read of the situation.
Even if you take QQ out of the range it is still more likely for a player to hold AK than AA and KK combined. There are more ways to make AK than AA and KK put together. If you add in QQ it's no contest. Those facts and the fact that you are crushing all hands but exactly AA mean that you have to be DAMN sure your against AA to fold KK. If you fold KK to ANY other hand you are making a big mistake. That being said, I have been ready to muck KK exactly two times in my life and heard that little voice in my head going "you can NEVER fold KK preflop" both times I made the crying call and both times I was against AA.
So, I don't think it is never OK to fold KK preflop but, again, you have to be DAMN sure your read is correct. Think about how often you will win if your opponent holds AK,QQ,KK or an overplayed JJ/AQ or even a stone cold bluff repping AA. You're KK will win about 77% vs a range of JJ,QQ,AK or a range of JJ,QQ,AK,+98s(random bluff), and if you do run into AA you still have almost 20%. Let's figure out how sure you have to be;
When you run into aces your value is 20%
When you run into anything else, let's say your 77%
Let's supose you and opponent each have 50BB's. When you run into aces your equity is 20BB
whenever you don't your equity is 77BB's.
If you fold your equity is 50BB.
Even if you run into aces one in five times
20+
77+
77+
77+
77+
=368, divided by 5 trials is 73.6, still better than 50.
If you run into aces two out of five you're 54.2BB's.
So, you have to be better than 40% sure your opponent has exactly AA to fold KK, that's without considering any money already in the pot from raises,re-raises, or even blinds and antes. If you just 3 bet and get shoved you might have to call even if you where 50/50 that your opponent held exactly two aces.
It is HARD to be that sure.
If you know your opponent can only have AA,KK,AKs, or QQ then your about 52%. Once you figure in the money in the pot after blinds/antes/rasing and reraising, you have to have a DEAD read to fold.
Last edited by Donovan; 02-04-2012 at 03:51 PM.