Quote:
Originally Posted by GreatWhiteFish
You might be right, and this could very well be a leak. Are you basing this off of a significant sample of aggregated hands? If so at what stakes?
I play pretty much exclusively live these days, and people play pretty bad. My thinking is that many players are opening too many weak offsuit aces in the HJ and people are definitely calling too wide in the CO. That plus if I perceive that I have an edge postflop it seems that expanding my range a little would likely be reasonable and still profitable.
I wouldn't think 50 NL would be significantly tougher than the higher stakes games I'm playing live, and that was my reasoning for advocating defending A10o to a minraise. Obviously anytime you deviate from GTO you open yourself up to potentially losing EV, and you do need to tread carefully and know when to get away from a hand.
I've been thinking about getting back online and putting in 100,000+ hands at low stakes just to do some database analysis to look for obvious leaks (like this?) that would translate to higher stakes live. Playing live you never really know if your assumptions are correct.
The good online players I play with live definitely have their preflop ranges dialed in better than I do. My recent results improved dramatically just after I started doing maybe 5 min a day drilling GTO preflop spots through an app. So I'm definitely open to suggestions for how to approach improving my preflop game if you have any suggestions?
I think rake is the main consideration here. If the rake was lower, ATo would shift to a call. If one of the players is weak, then it will shift to a call. Solver outputs aren't set in stone, and the equilibria they produce are really unstable and very sensitive to the inputs they're given.
This is 50nl rake:
It's hard to see, but there is a sliver of calling, so calling and folding are the same EV. At worse, it is a
very small mistake in theory. There are many reasons why it may perform better or worse in practice.
Here is the same thing, but at 1knl rake:
Now, it is a clear call, and we even start reaching down to A9o. Rake really punishes passive actions, like calling the BB.
The moral of the story is that the output you see from a solver isn't the end of the conversation, especially in real games. You should know what inputs were used to build the model and then deviate as necessary in your games.