What starting hand --> the nuts on the river most frequently?
11-27-2023
, 03:35 PM
A 13 year old revive? Let's give it go!
Building on bafchan's work...
What Hands Make The Nuts Most Often?
Flop: On the flop, the big pocket pairs are dominant. You can see 88+ is the nuts more often than any other hand. I suppose this is just because sets will be the nut high on most flops, and most flops are ace high.
Turn: The turn adds more connectivity, so we see connected cards becoming more nutted. Pocket pairs start to lose their nut potential, but QQ+ still dominates. The suited Aces start to become more nutted as flushes complete.
River: By the river, flushes are the most common nutted hand, so Ace-x suited becomes dominant. Connectivity also plays a role, but often times the straight will be outclassed by flushes. Big pairs like AA lose their nut potential as boats are uncommon, and top set is rarely the absolute nuts by the river.
It came as a surprise to me that ATs was most often the nuts by the river. I guess it's because you can make more one-card straights with AT compared to AK.
Generated with OddsOracle using 2M random samples per hand
Building on bafchan's work...
What Hands Make The Nuts Most Often?
Flop: On the flop, the big pocket pairs are dominant. You can see 88+ is the nuts more often than any other hand. I suppose this is just because sets will be the nut high on most flops, and most flops are ace high.
Turn: The turn adds more connectivity, so we see connected cards becoming more nutted. Pocket pairs start to lose their nut potential, but QQ+ still dominates. The suited Aces start to become more nutted as flushes complete.
River: By the river, flushes are the most common nutted hand, so Ace-x suited becomes dominant. Connectivity also plays a role, but often times the straight will be outclassed by flushes. Big pairs like AA lose their nut potential as boats are uncommon, and top set is rarely the absolute nuts by the river.
It came as a surprise to me that ATs was most often the nuts by the river. I guess it's because you can make more one-card straights with AT compared to AK.
Generated with OddsOracle using 2M random samples per hand
11-27-2023
, 03:46 PM
10-12-2024
, 06:06 PM
Quote:
A 13 year old revive? Let's give it go!
Building on bafchan's work...
What Hands Make The Nuts Most Often?
Flop: On the flop, the big pocket pairs are dominant. You can see 88+ is the nuts more often than any other hand. I suppose this is just because sets will be the nut high on most flops, and most flops are ace high.
Turn: The turn adds more connectivity, so we see connected cards becoming more nutted. Pocket pairs start to lose their nut potential, but QQ+ still dominates. The suited Aces start to become more nutted as flushes complete.
River: By the river, flushes are the most common nutted hand, so Ace-x suited becomes dominant. Connectivity also plays a role, but often times the straight will be outclassed by flushes. Big pairs like AA lose their nut potential as boats are uncommon, and top set is rarely the absolute nuts by the river.
It came as a surprise to me that ATs was most often the nuts by the river. I guess it's because you can make more one-card straights with AT compared to AK.
Generated with OddsOracle using 2M random samples per hand
Building on bafchan's work...
What Hands Make The Nuts Most Often?
Flop: On the flop, the big pocket pairs are dominant. You can see 88+ is the nuts more often than any other hand. I suppose this is just because sets will be the nut high on most flops, and most flops are ace high.
Turn: The turn adds more connectivity, so we see connected cards becoming more nutted. Pocket pairs start to lose their nut potential, but QQ+ still dominates. The suited Aces start to become more nutted as flushes complete.
River: By the river, flushes are the most common nutted hand, so Ace-x suited becomes dominant. Connectivity also plays a role, but often times the straight will be outclassed by flushes. Big pairs like AA lose their nut potential as boats are uncommon, and top set is rarely the absolute nuts by the river.
It came as a surprise to me that ATs was most often the nuts by the river. I guess it's because you can make more one-card straights with AT compared to AK.
Generated with OddsOracle using 2M random samples per hand
One comment though regarding why ATs is ahead of AKs - I don't think it can be due to making one card straights, because for example on a 9876 board the lone ten doesn't make the nut straight. Or am I missing something? How else could it possibly be that ATs makes the nuts more often than AKs? And why does AJs make the nuts more than AQs, and AQs more than AKs?
10-14-2024
, 10:00 PM
Quote:
I think that is because AJ and AQ make more effective nut straight flushes than AK, because they can make the nuts playing one hole card.
They all make the same number of royal flushes but AQs also has the effective nuts on a board of JT98s.
AJs has the effective nuts on boards of T987 and QT98.
AKs only makes the royal.
They all make the same number of royal flushes but AQs also has the effective nuts on a board of JT98s.
AJs has the effective nuts on boards of T987 and QT98.
AKs only makes the royal.
I believe what is happening that causes ATs to make the nuts more often than the higher suited aces is because there's more situations where it makes the nut flush (which is the nuts, i.e. there's no paired board) as well as simultaneously blocking straight flushes:
ATs:
KQJs
KQ9sxx
KJ9sxx
QJ9sxx
QJ8sxx
Q98sxx
J98sxx
J97sxx
J87sxx
AJs:
KQTs
KQ9sxx
KT9sxx
QT9sxx
QT8sxx
AQs:
KJTs
KJ9sxx
KT9sxx
AK:
QJTs
It seems that these few rare situations are enough to give ATs the fractional edge that it has vs the higher suited aces. However, I think there may be more to it than just the above, because in the output posted by tombos it implied that ATs is 0.8% ahead of AJs, which is 0.8% ahead of AQs:
This implies that ATs should be ahead of AJs by the same number of combos that AJs is ahead of AQs - but at least in my analysis above, that's not the case - so perhaps I'm missing something.